Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, from eastern Hispaniola southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 63W and 70W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 89W, southward from the Gulf of Honduras into the Eastern Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP).

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 20W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf coast. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the eastern side of the basin W of 25N. High pressure north of the area is supporting light and variable winds across most of the basin, except for moderate SW winds over the NE Gulf and moderate E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the NE Gulf and the Bay of Campeche, elsewhere, 1 to 3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas this week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into mid- week in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level trough sets up over the region.

Caribbean Sea

See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin.

The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin this week, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds may pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

A deep-layer trough extending down the eastern United States toward western Cuba is leading aiding in broad ascent, combining with abundant tropical moisture to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of Cuba and W of 71W, including waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N57W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 30N and west of 77.5W. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail across much of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue into early afternoon before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of the U.S. Will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough may bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by the end of the week.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv