Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01S30W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east of 41W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure over the NE Gulf dominates the basin, forcing fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche and lighter winds elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche and slight to moderate seas in the remainder of the Gulf. A dissipating stationary front stretches from SW Florida to 28N91W, but no significant convection is noted along this boundary.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Sat. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning, reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extends from the Bay Islands to 13N78W and scattered showers are evident north of this boundary and east of 76W. Pockets of moisture are also impacting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola supporting a few showers. The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will persist overnight north of a trough along the coast of eastern Honduras. High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia tonight through Sat night. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun into the middle of next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N62W to near Port Saint Lucie, Florida. A few showers are noted near this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally strong easterly winds north of the stationary front. Seas of 6-9 ft are occurring with these winds.

For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas are impacting waters north of 20N and east of 27W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds and rough seas north of front will diminish overnight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado