ORLANDO, Fla. – El Niño has stolen the headlines this winter, and rightfully so. It’s the main reason for Florida’s cloudiest winter on record.
Over the next several months, however, El Niño is expected to rapidly fade. By the summer, La Niña is expected to develop.
In short, El Niño helps to suppress Atlantic tropical activity while La Niña tends to enhance it.
Even with El Niño present for the 2023 hurricane season, it was still well-above average in terms of number of named storms. This was due to record-hot ocean temperatures across a good portion of the Atlantic basin.
The water temperature in the Atlantic’s main development region, in between Africa and the Caribbean Sea, is already running much-above normal. The water is so warm, it’s more indictive of what it should be in June than during the month of February.
The extremely warm water temperature combined with the emergence of La Niña could spell trouble for the 2024 hurricane season.
Long range models are already suggesting an extremely active season. The model below depicts rainfall anomalies.
Note the dark green indicating higher-than-normal rainfall for the month of August, indicating the potential for an active storm track.
While it is too early to tell where the storms could go, a busy year in the Caribbean and western Gulf of Mexico could be setting up. Steering currents could become more clear in the coming months.
Colorado State University, one of the most respected seasonal hurricane forecast entities, will release its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season in April.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its initial forecast just before the season officially begins in June.
Hurricane season begins June 1.
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