Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off Tampico Mon afternoon and night. These winds and seas will reach the waters off Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. Seas may peak around 18 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold front extends from 31N40W to 26N54W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N57W to 28N69W to 31N78W. Large swell generated from the first cold front is generating very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters N of 27N between 41W and 55W. Another set of large NW swell has entered the waters with the second cold front, with very rough seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 29N east of 65W, and merging with the very rough seas generated from the first front. The combined area of very rough seas will shift eastward across the waters N of 24N. Seas will peak at around 18 ft near 31N47W by early Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 32W and 56W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning.

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, while the remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a 1019 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through late today. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions are expected in the far west central and southwest Gulf by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through mid week as high pressure builds over the region following the front.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to fresh winds,a and seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are in the north central Caribbean. Moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through mid week, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night, reach from central Cuba to Belize by late Wed, and from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section at the beginning for details on the ongoing significant swell.

A pair of cold fronts are moving through the northern waters. The first cold front extends from 31N40W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection, and gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of this front. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N57W to 28N69W to 31N78W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm east of the front, and north of the front. Aside from the very rough seas discussed in the Special Features section above, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 30N70W to 22N55W to 30N28W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found S of 12N between 30W and 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front over the northern waters will move east of the area by early Mon, leaving a trailing stationary front to dissipate along 21N. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow this front. Large N swell will also follow this front, mixing with large swell already covering the area north of 22N and east of 70W. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Wed, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Thu night.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Al