Special Features

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system and an associated cold front will move eastward off the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this afternoon and evening. Strong S to SW winds are expected within 300 nm ahead of the front, with strong thunderstorms likely to develop along and ahead of the front as well. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in both the area of strong S to SW winds and also within areas of stronger convection. Strong to gale- force W to NW winds and very rough seas will quickly develop again behind the front beginning this evening. The front will reach from Bermuda to east central Cuba Tue afternoon, followed by strong to gale- force winds and rough to very rough seas. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will dissipate from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 07N11W and continues to 01.5S21W to 01.5S33W. No ITCZ is evident. Scattered to numerous moderate to locally strong convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from just north of Tampa Bay to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 23N between the W coast of Florida and the front. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail. To the east of the front, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Seas are slight in and near the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, a cold front is moving across the eastern Gulf and currently extends from low pressure 1004 mb over SE Georgia to the Yucatan Peninsula. A line of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas follow the front. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from west to east today through early Tue as the front exits the Gulf this evening. High pressure will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the basin by Fri, ahead of a cold front moving through the southerly Plains.

Caribbean Sea

Weak ridging dominates the basin, centered on a 1018 mb high near 25N66W. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail across the central Caribbean, with locally strong trade winds occurring offshore Colombia. Moderate SE to S winds prevail over the NW Caribbean, ahead of the Gulf of America cold front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas of 3 to 6 ft seas are noted across most of the basin, except for seas 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, weak high pressure prevails north of the area across the western Atlantic along about 25N. This pattern supports moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela and will pulse to fresh to strong during the evening to early morning hours through Tue morning, then return Thu through Fri. A cold front currently moving across the eastern Gulf of America will enter the northwestern Caribbean this evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, then stall from eastern Cuba to Belize early Wed before dissipating Wed afternoon. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas behind the front through Tue morning.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore the SE United States.

A surface trough, remnants of a weak cold front, extends from near 31N38W to 20N64W. The pressure gradient between this trough and weak high pressure near 25N66W is producing moderate anticyclonic winds N and W of the trough. Large W to NW swell generated by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward across the eastern Atlantic waters this afternoon. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring north of 20N between 30W and 61W. Further west, a stationary front extends along 30N from 58W to 72W. Moderate southerly winds are generally west of 70W, across the Bahamas to coastal Florida and Georgia. S winds are fresh to locally strong W of 75W as a cold front approaches the area. Seas are moderate N of 20N and W of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft in NW and N swell. In the far E Atlantic, fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across the waters between the Cabo Verde and Canary islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary frontal boundary extending between northeast Florida and south of Bermuda along 30N will lift northward today ahead of low pressure approaching the area from the west. This low pressure will move off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts this afternoon then shift eastward tonight. An associated cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this evening, accompanied by strong to near gale- force winds and quickly building seas. The front will reach from Bermuda to east central Cuba Tue afternoon, followed by strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and seas will dissipate from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front.

Posted 1 hour, 20 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams