Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near 14N17W, then curves southwestward to 03N22W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N22W across 00N33W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 28W and near the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N between 10W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high centered near the Florida Big Bend. Gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds spread across much of the basin as the pressure gradient increases between low pressure over the Southern Plains and high pressure E of Florida. Seas will also build through the weekend. Conditions will gradually improve next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Caribbean Sea

A trade-wind pattern continues across the entire Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are present in the central basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through early next week, including the Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds will pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages in the northeastern Caribbean by Sun. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish starting Tue night as the high pressure north of the area weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N62W to 27N71W. Convection previously associated with this feature has diminished overnight. To the SE, a surface trough extends from near 30N60W to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm E of this trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

N of the stationary front, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present. Elsewhere W of the surface trough, moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present. To the E, ridging extending S from high pressure N of the region dominates, inducing a mainly moderate tradewind regime over the waters, with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building in from the mid-Atlantic will support increasing strong NE to E winds and rough seas this weekend from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system may develop in the central Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik