Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off Tampico Mon. These winds and seas will reach the waters off Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. Seas may peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N65W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N52W to 28N63W to 30N74W. These fronts will lead to gale-force winds in the central Atlantic starting tonight and prevailing through Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds currently follow these fronts, with fresh to strong SW winds along and ahead of the fronts out to about 40W and N of 23N. Gusts to gale force are expected immediately ahead of the fronts as well as behind them, generally N of 24N between 30W and 60W through the duration of the Gale Warning. Large N swell from both fronts is leading to very rough seas greater over the forecast waters N of 23N between 37W and 68W. The large area of very rough seas will shift eastward across the waters N of 22N. Seas will peak at around 20 ft along and N of 30N between 45W and 55W Mon afternoon through Tue morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N and E of 20W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning.

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, while the remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the E Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are slight over the NE Gulf, and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf tonight, and gale force winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana by early Mon morning, and offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by Mon afternoon and night. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Widespread strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish from north to south through midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the basin following the front, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through late this week.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail in the central to SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining basin. Pockets of enhanced moisture in the trade wind flow are leading to scattered showers in the central to NW Caribbean where a surface trough is also present, as well as in the SE Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through the middle of this week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach near-gale force offshore of northern Colombia tonight and again Mon night. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the rest of the basin through midweek. Elsewhere, a long period N to NW swell will support rough seas over the Atlantic waters this week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northwestern basin late Tue into Wed, and weaken as it moves southeastward and dissipates on Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

See the Special Features section above for details on gale force winds and the ongoing significant swell in the central Atlantic.

A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N65W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N52W to 28N63W to 30N74W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N47W to 27N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough. Aside from the gales and significant swell mentioned above, rough seas cover the waters north of 18N between 32W-74W.

Farther east, a frontal remnant trough interacting with an upper level trough along 30W is leading to scattered showers E of 34W and N of 28N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and rough seas are noted near this feature. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, with locally rough seas and fresh to strong trades analyzed S of 10N between 35W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds and very rough seas will continue over the central tropical Atlantic, north of 22N and east of 65W, through Mon morning as a strong storm system and a series of cold fronts move over the region. Locally near-gale force winds will be possible north of 28N and east of 60W through late tonight. Widespread rough seas associated with this storm system will prevail east of 75W through tonight before briefly subsiding from west to east early this week. Farther west, fresh to strong W to SW winds will develop offshore of Florida on Mon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. The front is slated to move offshore by late Mon, supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. These winds and seas will expand eastward toward the central Atlantic through midweek as the front moves eastward. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic late this week, supporting increasing winds and building seas near and behind the front.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era