If you’ve been following Tropics Watch, the area highlighted by the National Hurricane Center shouldn’t come as surprise.
It has looked for sometime that an anomalous area of rising motion, needed for storm development would move back into our basin late in October and again in November. This potential disturbance is the result of that.
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We had an in depth conversation on Monday’s edition of Tropics Watch LIVE. Click here if you missed it.
Now the question mark. Does this thunderstorm activity develop and if it does where does it go.
The GFS is the most aggressive and fastest at developing this disturbance. This model has a bias in this part of the world in doing that.
With that being said it has been consistent and other reliable models, EURO and Canadian have also been showing development. We also have a concrete reason, anomalous rising motion, to say that GFS suggesting developing isn’t completely out to lunch.
Development with those other reliable models, however, have been slower and more broad, meaning weaker.
Also, however, those models don’t go out as far as the GFS so it’s unclear if they suggest eventual organization. We would be looking at the 17-20 for possible development in the Caribbean.
Anyway it’s something to watch on the one year mark of Hurricane Nicole.I hope everyone reading is doing ok after our dual hurricane strike of last year if you were impacted.
Even though we did just have a November hurricane last year it is really rare that a hurricane makes landfall in Florida. Click here to see how many times that has happened.
Any questions...shoot me an e-mail!
- Jonathan
Hurricane season is officially underway and the Pinpoint Weather Team at News 6 will be here for you. We want to make sure you stay updated on the tropics and all things weather, of course.
If you’re new to the Tropics Watch Newsletter, thank you for signing up! I will be visiting your inbox every Monday (and as needed) to talk all things tropics this hurricane season. We also have a live tropics show that airs on our YouTube channel every Monday at 11 a.m.
Hopefully, we can break down the science and meteorology of these storms as they stay WAY out at sea.
Obviously, last year was rough. This isn’t a time to stress out or be anxious but to simply be prepared. Most of the time Central Florida doesn’t get hit, but typically there’s a lot going on in the Atlantic Basin as we get deeper into the summer.
That’s where the Pinpoint Weather Team comes in. We will remove all the noise that is out there and tell it like it is.
The Tropics Watch newsletter works a little differently than our other newsletters you may be subscribed to at News 6. This is going to come out after Monday afternoon to keep you posted on what could happen, but I will also visit your inbox if something “pops.”
When a new storm is born, the track or intensity changes, another area to watch develops or just something interesting is going on in the tropics, you will know about it. It’s my hope that we can have a conversation about the science and meteorology involved in tropical weather forecasting.
If you have any questions or concerns about anything weather related, please reach out. My email is jkegges@wkmg.com. If there is something you would like to be added to this newsletter or a topic you would like covered, let me know.
Talk to you soon! Well, hopefully not that soon.