ORLANDO, Fla. – When it comes to the Electoral College, the idea of one person, one vote doesn’t really hold true.
The system has been in use since 1787. The basics: each state is assigned a number of votes based on population and the total of those votes for the candidates decides the winner.
Out of 50 states and the District of Columbia, each has a winner-take-all approach except for Maine (4 electoral votes) and Nebraska (5 electoral votes). In those two states, all of those electoral votes can go to one candidate or, like in 2020, can be split (Trump got 4 votes from Nebraska while the Democrats eked out 1; in Maine, Biden took 3 votes to Trump’s 1).
Any data analyst who takes even a cursory look at the numbers will tell you the same thing when it comes to the Electoral College: A certain number of states will always vote Republican, and a certain number will always vote for the Democrats. Add those states up, subtract them from 51 (50 states plus D.C.), and you get the number of states that really matter for the race for the White House.
[RESULTS 2024: Complete Coverage | How to vote in the Nov. 5 presidential election]
This year, that number is 7… ish. And those states are the seven(ish) places you’ll see former President Trump and Vice President Harris in the final stretches of the race.
The United States of America is increasingly becoming the Divided States of America. New York? Locked up for the Dems. Same with California, D.C., Illinois, and 15 other states. For the Republicans, Alabama, Utah, Tennessee, Idaho, Arkansas and 18 other states are all safe bets. In fact, 38 of those 42 states haven’t changed their minds when it comes to picking a president in a very long time- they’ve all gone for the same party over the last five races.
Conclusion: why waste time and money on safe bets? Spend your dollars wisely on travel and advertising in states that can be swayed from one side to the other or are too close to call.
And Florida, as of right now, you’re not one of those states.
In 2020, those too close to call states ended up being just five (Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada). This time around, the number has popped up to seven – Alaska is now considered a lock for the Republicans, but Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin (all won by Biden in 2020) are now polling somewhat evenly for both sides. Add those seven with part of Nebraska (the second district that Biden got one electoral vote out of in 2020) and we’re looking now at just eight places (seven states and my “ish,” that one small Nebraskan district) where the candidates will be intensely focusing on getting votes.
For years, Florida (along with Ohio), was considered two of the biggest battleground states for the election. Each had a history of putting a president over the top (no one got to the White House between 1964 and 2016 without winning Ohio, and Florida single-handedly elevated George W. Bush to the presidency over Al Gore in 2000). Both were crucial swing states but are now considered safe for Republicans.
The Dems have moved on.
And since states on both sides are now considered “safe,” campaigning for the presidency is no longer about appealing to everyone, instead, it’s now about appealing to the ones that will give you the right math. For 2024, the math for Vice President Harris starts with 19 states and D.C. being most likely a lock for a total of 226 electoral votes. For former President Trump, the numbers are a little less, but he’s not that far behind: 24 states with 218 electoral votes.
Which leaves us with the battleground states. In essence, for the race to 270 electoral votes, Harris is starting with 226 and Trump with 218. Here’s what they’re fighting over:
- Arizona 11 Electoral Votes
- Georgia 16 Electoral Votes
- Michigan 15 Electoral Votes
- Nebraska 1 Electoral Votes (total of 4 for the state)
- Nevada 6 Electoral Votes
- North Carolina 16 Electoral Votes
- Pennsylvania 19 Electoral Votes
- Wisconsin 10 Electoral Votes
- TOTAL: 94 Electoral Votes
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, we’ve attempted to put the race in context by answering one simple question: How many different combinations are there in the Electoral College for a candidate to win the White House in 2024?
The infographic below attempts to answer that question assuming all red states vote red, and all blue states vote blue. They’ll probably be a surprise, but hey, at least we tried!