ORLANDO, Fla. – We are keeping a close eye on a developing late-season area in the tropics that became Subtropical Storm Nicole early Monday.
As Nicole lifts from the Caribbean, models are coming to better agreement that it will bring significant impacts to east Central Florida by mid-week.
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Early Monday, Nicole was 555 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas, heading north-northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Nicole is expected to take a turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed later Monday. A west or west-southwest motion is forecast Tuesday through early Thursday.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Nicole could be near or at hurricane intensity by Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles to the east of the center.
On its current forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night.
The following spaghetti models were established Sunday afternoon at the National Hurricane Center.
Expect life-threatening rip currents, choppy surf and large breaking waves to continue, in addition to a growing concern for beach erosion around the times of high tide.
By Tuesday, we could see wind gusts up to 30 mph inland and up to 40 mph along the coast. Worsening conditions continue with seas forecast to reach 9-13 feet nearshore.
As Nicole tracks north near the Bahamas, it will begin to interact with a large ridge, quickly steering it west-southwestward Tuesday afternoon.
By Wednesday, Nicole is forecast to pick up speed and some intensity as it moves southwest toward the northern Bahamas. Models suggest tropical moisture arriving as early as Wednesday afternoon. The EURO model guidance is faster taking a more southward trajectory, where the GFS brings a slower storm across Central Florida and into the Panhandle. The slowest model is the Canadian, showing the system approaching by Thursday afternoon.
With that being said, and with many communities still dealing with impacts from Hurricane Ian, we should not take this system lightly. Depending on the low’s strengths and track, impacts with rainfall and flooding could be a big concern.
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