ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s out there, so we are going to talk about it.
Computer models are starting to hint at the potential for a developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico or southwest Atlantic next week.
The model runs have made their way onto social media, but there is nothing to be alarmed about at this point.
Will there be tropical development next week?
Here’s the deal. A cold front, the same front that will increase rain chances for Central Florida over Easter weekend, will stall out over the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic.
This front would be the focal point for any possible developing disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico or southwest Atlantic next week. If something does develop, it would be too early to tell if it would be a tropical system or a hybrid subtropical storm, a storm that is fueled by both warm water and differences in temperature in the atmosphere.
Water temperatures are currently in the upper 70s in the northeast Gulf and low to mid-80s in the eastern Gulf, so there is plenty of early season fuel for a potential disturbance to tap in to.
Typically, a tropical system needs water temperatures to be 80 degrees or warmer to develop and thrive.
With water temperatures running much above normal, it will be possible for something to spin up along the front next week or even later in April or May. If something were to develop, it would likely remain weak.
While hurricane season doesn’t start until June 1, oftentimes dying cold fronts can spawn these typically weak, ugly-looking tropical or subtropical storms close to home prior to the official start to the season.
The last time a named storm developed in the Atlantic basin was Tropical Storm Arlene in 2017.
Interestingly, the first name on the list for the 2023 season is also Arlene.
Colorado State University, a well-respected university for seasonal tropical forecasts, issues their first forecast for the upcoming season on April 13. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue their outlook in late May.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1. Daily updates from the National Hurricane Center begin May 15.
This serves as a good reminder not only to get prepared for the upcoming season, but to be mindful of where important weather information is coming from. News 6 and the National Hurricane Center are two trusted sources.