ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at Colorado State University on Thursday released their predictions for the 2023 hurricane season.
The agency expects 13 named storms, six of which are predicted to become hurricanes, with two of those becoming major. Major hurricane status is category 3 (111 mph winds or greater).
An average season consist of 14 named storms, seven becoming hurricanes with three becoming major.
While rarely impacted by landfalling tropical systems, CSU is widely respected in tropical meteorology.
The 2023 hurricane season will feature an El-Nino weather pattern. El-Nino, especially a strong El-Nino, tends to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic Basin by increasing wind shear, which is detrimental to the development of tropical systems.
Water temperatures across much of the Atlantic Basin, however, are running above normal. Warm water helps to fuel tropical systems, which is why the forecast is slightly below normal. Even with the number of storms currently forecast to be below normal, it is important to remember it only takes one.
The university also highlights major hurricane landfall percentages.
The East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, has a 22% of seeing a landfall from a category 3 or higher storm. The average is 21%.
The Gulf Coast has a 28% chance to see a major hurricane landfall. The average is 27%. The entire U.S. coastline has a 44% chance to see a landfall from a major hurricane. The average is 43%.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its outlook for the 2023 season in late May. Hurricane season officially begins June 1.
For more on preparing yourself for the upcoming hurricane season, click here.