Tropics Watch: Robust tropical wave emerges from Africa, but Atlantic hostile for development

ORLANDO, Fla. – The environment being hostile is good for us, bad for storms.

One of the juiciest tropical waves of the 2023 hurricane season emerged Thursday morning off Africa. This is the time of year when waves rolling off Africa become much more common.

The last couple of weeks across the Atlantic Basin have been dominated by dry air and subsidence. It’s part of the reason the tropics have been quiet. Sinking air or subsidence is the opposite of what thunderstorms need to develop and thrive. Tropical systems also need the atmosphere to contain a lot of moisture.

Right now is not a good time to be a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic.

Two tropical waves, invests 95L and 96L, both had high chances for development as designated by the National Hurricane Center, but thankfully could not overcome the limiting factors.

Even though the new tropical wave is healthy in the early going, it will thankfully have to battle with that same hostile environment. Currently, model guidance is split on if this wave develops.

The European model just sends a surge of tropical moisture toward the Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic.

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The American GFS develops it a little more as it moves through the Southwest Atlantic.

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Only time will tell if this wave develops due to the unfavorable environment previously mentioned, but it’s one to keep an eye due to expected steering currents. High pressure that has been anchored over the Central Atlantic will tend to move back west.

This would increase chances that any storm that does develop makes it further west, potentially threatening land, rather than being swung out to sea.

There are no immediate threats to Florida at this time, but this serves as a reminder that we are heading into the peak of hurricane season.

Hurricane season runs through November, with the peak occurring Sept. 10.

The middle of August typically sees a large increase in tropical activity for the Atlantic Basin.

The next named storm will be Emily.

Hurricane season runs through November.

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