ORLANDO, Fla. – After a nice quiet stretch in the tropics, it appears the switch is about to be flipped. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting two tropical waves over the Central and Eastern Atlantic.
While development chances are low in the short-term, model guidance suggests at least one of these waves has a pretty good chance to be the next named storm of the 2023 hurricane season. Model guidance also shows additional storm development beyond these two areas.
The leading wave, over the Central Atlantic, has a 20% chance for development. Some slow development is possible of this system over the coming week, but at this time it is very unorganized. Right now, there is a string of thunderstorms through the Central Atlantic known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In order for storms to develop out of this, it first has to detach itself from the overall ITCZ.
This adds to the development uncertainty because there will be multiple centers trying to compete for dominance. This entity will also have to overcome dry air which makes development of this system unlikely.
Elsewhere, a robust tropical wave is expected to move off Africa by the middle of the week. Slow development is possible with this system as it moves west-northwest across the Atlantic toward the Cabo Verde islands.
Development chances are 30% over the next seven days, however there is a slug of dry dusty air in this part of the world.
Any storm that jogs north will have to fight off the dry, dusty air.
The moral of the story right now, Africa is trying to spit out tropical waves, but the Atlantic does not appear ready to support them.
Sneaky Gulf storm?
Closer to home, indications are another tropical wave could develop by the end of the week near the Bahamas.
Model guidance has the moisture reaching Florida by Aug. 19 and then getting into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the upcoming weekend,
This scenario will have to watched closely as the Gulf of Mexico is record hot in spots.
There will also be a period of very light wind shear allowing anything that got into the Gulf a chance to take advantage of the extremely warm water.
The European Model has a strong storm in the northern/western Gulf.
The American GFS has a weaker, less organized storm.
Neither storm at this time really ramps up the system but given the environment, it would need to be watched closely if it entered the Gulf.
The European ensembles continue to be aggressive with tropical development over the next week.
Ensembles are the best tool to look out at this stage of the game because they account for the immense uncertainty prior to the storm’s development.
The ensemble is made of 51 members, each tweaked with different initial conditions. If there are many members on board, it gives the forecaster confidence that a storm will develop.
The GFS ensembles is the most aggressive with the wave expected to emerge off Africa in the coming days.
Notice how there aren’t as many lines with the potential Gulf storm and leading African wave on the GFS solution. The GFS takes the wave over Africa and plows it right through the dust plume and into the north Atlantic.
The European is likely too aggressive given the poor environment, especially with the leading Atlantic wave. The environment, however, in the Gulf of Mexico, as mentioned above, appears to be much better and that one would be of concern if that wave found itself in the Gulf.
Last week. the National Hurricane Center doubled the chances for an active hurricane season.
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