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Tropics Watch: Late-season tropical disturbance looking more likely. Here’s what to expect

Hurricane season ends Dec. 1

Gfs model (maxuser)

ORLANDO, Fla. – There are just over two weeks left, officially, of hurricane season, but a disturbance is bubbling in the Caribbean.

Over the next few days, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop and a tropical depression could form later in the week.

Every major model now shows development of the system as it lifts north toward Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola by the latter part of the week.

Gfs model

Regardless of development, heavy rain and thunderstorms will be likely for the Central Caribbean.

Euro model

Water temperatures are still plenty warm in the Caribbean to sustain development and further strengthening. Sea surface temperatures across the central and Western Caribbean remain around 90 degrees.

Sea surface temperatures

Steering currents will keep this storm away from the U.S.

Ample wind shear is also present near the U.S., which would tend to keep the storm weak if something unforeseen happened with the storm’s track.

Hurricane season officially runs through November. There are only two names left on the list of names for the 2023 season: Vince and Whitney.

If all names are used up, a supplemental list of names will be used to complete the season.


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