Skip to main content
Clear icon
49º

Florida winter outlook update: More storms likely

Strong El Niño to continue through spring

Beautiful White Christmas in Groveland, Florida - Pins User MMalys (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

ORLANDO, Fla. – We told you in September that this winter would be very different in Florida.

Even in late fall that has been the case, with higher than normal rainfall and frequent storm systems.

And the theme is expected to continue.

November was much above normal in the rainfall department, brought on by the active subtropical jet stream, which brings disturbances and moisture to Florida and is typically more active during an El Niño pattern.

El Nino driven winter

The current strong El Niño is expected to stick around through the start of spring.

Early to mid-December featured back-to-back weekend storms. The second broke daily rainfall records across Central Florida and likely set a new low pressure record for Central Florida.

A likely new low pressure record was set in Central Florida with the Dec. 16-17 storm.

Another system, albeit weaker than the Dec. 16 storm, is expected to increase rain chances for Christmas in Central Florida.

Beyond Christmas, a more potent system appears possible to kick off 2024. The model below depicts a building ridge in the west and trough or dip in the jet stream in the east.

Average 500mnb anomaly suggest stormy weather in the Southeast to start 2024.

This will likely induce a stormy pattern in January.

The cloudier and stormier than normal pattern is expected to continue for the next few months. Long-range models continue to highlight above normal rainfall in the Sunshine State through early spring.

Rainfall anomaly for January, February and March. Green represents higher than normal precipitation.

As the weather warms in late winter and early spring, the potential for severe weather will increase with more instability brought on by solar heating and a atypically strong wind shear from the subtropical jet stream.