ORLANDO, Fla. – The strong El Niño, responsible for Florida’s record cloudy winter is fading fast.
While El Niño is expected to hang on through spring, La Niña is forecast to rapidly develop by summer.
Colder than normal sea surface temperatures have already started to develop in the equatorial Pacific.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center increased the odds for La Niña arriving for hurricane season in its latest monthly outlook.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance). An #ElNino Advisory and #LaNina Watch remain in effect. https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/Igu9bsBAFz
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) March 14, 2024
El Niño tends to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic by decreasing thunderstorms and increasing wind shear.
La Niña has the opposite effect by promoting thunderstorm development in the Atlantic while reducing wind shear, which is detrimental to tropical development.
While La Niña typically brings a more active season, there is a difference on where the activity typically comes from.
During a strong El Niño, like what we had in 2023, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico activity are relatively quiet.
Plotted below are all of the storms that developed in seven strong El Niño seasons since the satellite era, 1960. A strong El Niño is categorized with sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific of 1.5 degrees Celsius or greater.
Most of the activity remains outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during a strong El Niño. Wind shear is maximized in the Caribbean during El Niño summers, so this is no surprise.
Changes Coming
In the La Niña seasons that immediately followed a strong El Niño, like what is predicted for the 2024 hurricane season, there is a noteworthy and significant change to where the storms tend to track.
In the seven La Niña hurricane seasons that followed a strong El Niño, tropical activity in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico increases.
It is important to note that this is not a forecast, just what has happened in past seasons with similar conditions to that of the 2024 hurricane season.
It is impossible to predict months in advance where an individual storm will track, but the atmosphere can provide clues as to what may happen for the season.
No matter how many storms are forecast, it is important to remember it only takes one so you should always be prepared.
Hurricane season begins June 1.