ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropics Watch Live started Monday for the 2024 hurricane season. Join us every Monday at 11 a.m. as we livestream the latest in regards to the tropics.
Mike Boylan, of Mike’s Weather Page, joined Jonathan Kegges on June 3 to talk about the 2024 hurricane season. Watch the full segment at the top of this page.
For the second time since 2014, there were no storms in the Atlantic prior to the start of season.
For now, the quiet stretch looks to roll on through at least the first week of June.
With El Niño hanging on by a thread and sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific even warmer than the Atlantic, the more favorable environment in the short term lies in that basin.
Typically when the eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is on the quieter side and vice versa.
Once a few storms develop and churn up cooler water in the eastern Pacific, thunderstorm development may focus more on the Atlantic side.
The first real shot at activity in the Atlantic basin looks to come during the third or fourth week of June.
A phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, MJO, looks to help force up thunderstorms as it moves into a favorable phase for tropical development.
The MJO is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that moves around the globe every 30-60 days. When it moves through certain regions, other areas of the planet become either favorable or unfavorable for development.
In this case, by the third or fourth weeks of June we will look for possible development in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The green on the map below represents positive rising motion anomalies. Rising motion is needed for thunderstorm development.
Wind shear also looks to back off at the time.
In the short term, the next week or two, no new development is expected.
Remember, June and July are typically quiet months. Most of the season doesn’t really happen until we venture into August and beyond. And 95% of all major hurricanes historically occur from August through October.
Now is your chance to get prepared.