ORLANDO, Fla. – This week, an area of tropical moisture is expected to move from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico, then surge into Central Florida bringing significant rainfall beginning on Tuesday.
A broad low could form during the week but the likelihood of this system developing into a tropical storm is slim due to strong wind shear.
The possible low pressure area is expected to send moisture along its eastern side, leading to heavy rain over Central Florida.
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Parts of Central Florida could see 5-10 inches of rain through the week.
This rain will be beneficial as drought conditions continue to worsen.
As the wind shear backs down heading into the upcoming weekend, atmospheric conditions will be marginally conducive for possible tropical development. If a storm were to form, it could be in 7-10 days, which is too far out to trust model runs at the moment.
Given that there is still some time away, the situation could change, so we’ll continue to monitor it throughout the week. If a system does form, it’s unlikely to be strong but would pose a significant heavy rain threat wherever it goes.
At the moment, the National Hurricane Center indicates no development is expected in the next seven days.
This area of low pressure is part of a typical June weather pattern called the Central American Gyre, a broad region of moisture that slowly swirls in the atmosphere over Central America. It can hang around for weeks and sometimes spawn a tropical storm or two.
Notable tropical storms such as Claudette in June 2021 and Cristobal in June 2020 originated from this pattern, often bringing substantial rainfall.
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