ORLANDO, Fl. – Alright, take a breath. There has been a lot of buzz on social media about tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa and the potential for a tropical system developing next week.
And Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center officially highlighted a disturbance in the Central Atlantic.
Hurricane officials said there is a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. Development in the short-term will be slow as it interacts with another tropical wave emerging off Africa. There is also a great deal of Saharan dust that will limit development, for now.
Long-range Euro models hint that we might see some potential development in early August, particularly in the western Atlantic, northern Caribbean and possibly near Florida.
While the Euro models suggest this possibility, the GFS models currently predict no development at all.
Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges said there is a long time to watch the wave and any others that come off Africa.
“The European model has been the most aggressive, and really the only model developing the wave. There is currently a lot of dust out there. If this development were to occur, it would be slow in the short-term and likely wouldn’t happen until it got closer to the Caribbean islands or Turks and Caicos during the first couple of days of August,” Kegges added.
Kegges also goes into great detail about tropical waves on Weather Wise, a daily morning livestream that brings you weather news in Florida, across the U.S. and in the tropics.
Chief Meteorologist Candace Campos said the potential of this tropical wave gives a preview of what could be on the horizon.
“Forecasting tropical meteorology is a blessing and a curse.,” she said. “With the tropics, we have the ability to watch and monitor for weeks at a time compared to other dangerous weather phenomenon. But that ability to forecast long-range has its drawbacks, as trends can shift from model run to model run. With experimental and new technology evolving every season, our ability to look out weeks in advance is becoming easier to do. And we know this constant flow of information can be overwhelming and tiring.”
We are likely heading into the start of increased tropical activity as we close in on the peak of hurricane season over the next several weeks, so take this time to make sure you’re prepared for anything that may come our way.
Meteorologist Samara Cokinos said it’s important to know your weather sources and rely on meteorologists you trust.
“Keep in mind that models can change a lot, especially this early, which can be frustrating,” she said. “That’s why the Pinpoint Weather Team is here to help make sense of it all.”
The team takes the time to not only show you the information available, but to go beyond that and answer the questions we know you’re asking.
What are the trends? What’s the certainty of these models? Should we be concerned? What does this mean to us?
Meteorologist Julie Broughton said, “Remember, we all call Central Florida home, too. So our priority is providing calm, reliable information so you can make the best decisions for your family.”
There is no doubt that it is going to be a long and busy hurricane season, but don’t get caught up in each model run that pops up on your feed. Find your trusted voice this season to guide you through the noise, and we hope it’s with News 6.