ORLANDO, Fla. – Hurricane experts have said 2024 has the potential to be very busy, and there are signs that tropical activity is heating up.
The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday increased the chances of tropical development to 60% for a disturbance in the central Atlantic.
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Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for slow development as the disturbance approaches the Greater Antilles and Bahamas later in the week. Eventually, at least a tropical depression could form.
The hurricane center has the majority of Florida highlighted as an area of potential development.
News 6 meteorologist Jonathan Kegges said if it were to get organized faster, it would have a better chance of tracking east of Florida. If it is slower to get organized, it would have a better chance to enter the Gulf of Mexico.
All options are on the table and computer models continue to vary from run to run. Many factors remain in play, including dry air and the strength and position of a Bermuda high that could help steer the disturbance.
It is still too early to determine what, if any, impacts could be felt in Central Florida by the weekend.
The hurricane center’s update Tuesday afternoon said:
“For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air. Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.”
Kegges said tropical activity could see an uptick in mid-August.
The next named storm will be called Debby.