ORLANDO, Fla. – All eyes remain on the tropics as we in Florida continue to monitor the progress of a broad tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles.
As of Wednesday night, plenty of uncertainty remains in terms of its track and intensity.
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The reason for this uncertainty is due to the broad tropical wave remaining very much disorganized as it battles Saharan dust on its northern end. Since there currently is no dominant center of circulation, models don’t have a concise starting point with which to work.
The National Hurricane Center is still giving the wave a 60% chance of tropical development once it approaches the eastern Bahamas late this week.
In Central Florida, our storm potential for the weekend will be dependent on the path of this tropical system. If the wave stays far enough in the Atlantic, we could see a typical weekend. If the path shifts further west toward the Gulf, a better shot for gusty squalls and periods of tropical downpours will be possible.
Here’s what the hurricane center posted about the tropical disturbance Wednesday night:
“For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is not anticipated during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.”
Continue to stay up to date with the News 6 Pinpoint Weather Team through the week.
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