ORLANDO, Fla. – A tropical wave now has an even better chance of organizing and could bring big-time rain to Florida as it continues its path through the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center on Thursday designated the system as Invest 97L, adding later in the day that it has a 40% chance of developing tropical characteristics in the next two days and a 70% chance over the next seven days.
With the designation as an invest, spaghetti models are now going to be generated through the day. Late Thursday morning, Hurricane Hunters have been sent on the first mission into the system where vital information will be gathered to better improve those forecast models.
The system is expected to enter favorable environmental conditions for development and could become at least a tropical depression this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida.
“This could become a big-time rainmaker for Central Florida. That’s certainly a big-time possibility,” Chief Meteorologist Candace Campos said.
Satellite imagery shows more robust convection developing from Puerto Rico through the eastern Bahamas as it battles less Saharan dust.
Many outlying models that kept the wave out in the Atlantic are turning more west, increasing the chances for more of a Florida/Gulf of Mexico impact. The steering flow around the tropical wave will be key in determining where this system will go as it approaches the Florida coast.
Models are now hinting at a very slow-moving system approaching the Florida coast by late this weekend, possibly bringing tropical downpours for several days.
“We’re talking about a lot of rain in a short amount of time,” Campos said.
Although this won’t be a big wind event, days of rain brings obvious concerns.
The NHC statement late Thursday about the invest said:
“For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward near or over Cuba on Friday and then emerge over the Straits of Florida Friday night or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.”
Things to know:
- Models are trending more west
- Could be a Florida soaker
- Timing: Late Sunday to Tuesday
If the wave moves into the Gulf, plenty of hot waters could fuel development into a tropical depression or storm early next week. If it gets a name, it would be Debby.
Hurricane season runs through November.