ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Helene formed in the Caribbean on Tuesday and is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane on a path toward Florida.
Landfall appears to occur in Florida sometime on Thursday. The question is where in Florida observes the worst of the impacts.
Helene is developing in the western Caribbean, it is dealing with some wind shear. This shear may hinder development initially and may also allow for formation further east than model guidance is suggesting.
The storm will then be guided towards the Yucatan channel by an upper high pressure cell east of Florida and upper low digging into the Deep South.
The key for predicting landfall is the location of the upper low.
Forecast model guidance suggests the low will cut off from the main west-to-east flow across the Lower 48 which in turn will quickly guide the storm into the Big Bend or Panhandle.
A sharper turn east?
The initial track looks a lot like Hurricane Ian which eventually took a hard turn into Southwest Florida and eventually into Central Florida. For that to happen again, the high to the east of Florida will have to be weaker than forecast, the upper low would have to remain attached to the overall flow to send it more east, and the center would have to develop further east in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Hunter missions are underway to collect better data to make the forecasts more accurate.
This system is also expected to be large in size, making it harder to make an abrupt turn. With that said, impacts will be far-reaching from the center.