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Tropical threat in Gulf of Mexico becoming less likely. Here’s how it will still impact Florida

Central Florida may still see some tropical moisture moving in from the Gulf next week

2 a.m. tropical update

ORLANDO, Fla. – The Pinpoint Weather team continues to watch the Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical activity in the next seven days.

As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center reduced the chances for tropical development to 30% over the next week.

2 a.m. tropical update

Conditions don’t look favorable for a hurricane in the area, and models suggest a broad low pressure with widespread rain instead.

By the time any development might occur, a cold front will be south of the coast, creating strong wind shear.

Set up next week

Long-range forecasts suggest tropical moisture moving into Central and South Florida by late this weekend or early next week, increasing rain chances as a low pressure system forms and interacts with a boundary.

Rainfall from Sunday to Tuesday is expected to range from 1 to 3 inches, with some areas seeing higher amounts.

Rainfall potential

In the Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk is a major hurricane and continues to strengthen. Tropical Storm Leslie formed Wednesday and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Hurricane season runs through November.


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About the Author
Michelle Morgan headshot

Michelle joined News 6 as a meteorologist in May 2023.

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