ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Friday continues to watch the potential for tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
Hurricane experts have highlighted an area in the Gulf where a system could develop. As of 2 p.m. Friday, there’s a 10% chance the potential system could develop tropical characteristics over the next two days and a 50% chance over the next seven days, the NHC said.
At the start of next week, an upper-level trough and a cool front will keep the northern Gulf dry, but it will steer the low-pressure system east toward Florida.
Models indicate a broad low-pressure system forming in the Gulf this weekend, likely impacting Florida early next week.
Most global models show a weak storm, with only the GFS showing the development of a broad low-pressure area and nothing more significant.
Global models are in a pretty good consensus, indicating that the center of any development will likely move into the southwestern coast of Florida by early to midweek.
Remember, there’s no closed circulation yet, so the models will keep shifting. Once -- or if -- a center forms, the models will give a clearer idea of where the system is headed.
Regardless of development, the odds for heavy tropical downpours are slowly increasing.
If the storm gets named, it will be called Milton.
The primary concern is heavy rain, with some areas potentially seeing up to 5-plus inches through Wednesday, according to the GFS solution.
The EURO model is showing a noticeably different solution, drastically reducing rainfall totals through Wednesday, with most areas receiving less than 1 inch and others nearing 2 inches.
Hurricane season runs through November.