TAMPA, Fla. – As we’ve been preparing for Hurricane Milton, you’ve heard us talk a lot about storm surge. One big concern with Milton has been the potential of a catastrophic storm surge in the Tampa area.
For perspective, Tampa hasn’t had a direct hit by a major hurricane in more than 100 years. As of Wednesday morning, the official track from the National Hurricane Center shows the center of the storm making landfall south of Tampa, closer to Bradenton.
[RELATED: What is storm surge, why is it so dangerous]
How Storm Surge Works
To understand storm surge, it’s important to recognize the dynamics of a tropical cyclone, like Hurricane Milton.
The winds that rotate in a counter-clockwise fashion. When a storm approaches Florida from the Gulf, anywhere south of the storm’s center will experience strong winds coming from the west. These onshore winds push water toward the coastline, causing what is known as storm surge. This surge can lead to severe flooding, property damage, and loss of life in coastal areas.
The NHC is forecasting storm surge on the west coast of Florida higher than 12 feet from Bradenton down to Cape Coral. Of course this will depend upon the exact location of landfall.
The Reverse Side: What is Reverse Storm Surge?
Conversely, when a storm approaches from the west, areas north of the center will experience an offshore flow, with winds blowing from the east. These easterly winds can create a phenomenon known as reverse storm surge, which has the opposite effect of a traditional surge by pushing water away from the coast. As a result, water levels along the shoreline can drop dramatically, sometimes exposing the sea floor in areas that are usually submerged.
The Impacts of Reverse Storm Surge
The sudden drop in water levels caused by reverse storm surge can have significant effects on marine life and coastal ecosystems. It can also disrupt navigation for boats, strand marine vessels, and pose challenges to coastal infrastructure. While reverse storm surge might seem less dangerous than a traditional surge, keep in mind it can still lead to dangerous conditions, especially if the wind direction shifts suddenly and the water returns to the coast quickly.
Historical Context: Reverse Storm Surge in Tampa Bay During Irma and Ian
You may recall Tampa Bay experienced reverse storm surge during Hurricanes Irma in 2017 and Ian in 2022.
As these storms approached Florida, strong easterly winds blew water out of Tampa Bay, exposing large areas of the bay floor that are typically underwater.
Get today’s headlines in minutes with Your Florida Daily: