ORLANDO, Fla. – The 2024 hurricane season was forecast to be “hyperactive” by tally of named storms and overall accumulated cyclone energy throughout the Atlantic basin. But, one very crucial piece of the forecast involved impacts.
Many of us in the U.S., and especially in Florida, have been dealt a brutal hand by the storms this season.
Despite having not met the gratuitous numbers forecast for the Atlantic season earlier this year, we’ve had a pretty hefty hurricane season to date.
The numbers below reflect this has not been a season of quantity but “quality” in terms of tropical cyclones. Quality meaning they’ve been robust, powerful and unfortunately, destructive.
Of the 15 total storms we’ve seen develop, 10 became hurricanes. Finally, four of those hurricanes turned into catastrophic major hurricanes. Three of our four major hurricanes all made landfall in a heavily populated region of the world.
With all the landfalls we’ve observed to date, a majority of us are naturally on edge. You can’t go more than a couple hours before stumbling across another weather post or video claiming “another hurricane is coming.”
But how much of it is real? How much of the information currently in circulation is true? How much is for your safety? How much is for the benefit of those simply promoting the next “trendy” topic for their own notoriety?
In today’s digital era, it’s very easy for anyone to get their hands on weather graphics, model data and charts for their viewing. This makes it far easier to get pertinent information you may need to make critical decisions during bad weather.
On the other hand, it’s also very easy for others to spread misinformation. Drama naturally catches the average individual’s attention. We have all seen the one-off computer model runs that show a Category 5 hurricane hitting Central Florida. That would make a pretty exciting and worrisome post for some social media sillies.
But because of this, sharing all of these differing graphics and charts gets confusing. It causes congestion in a niche where pinpoint accurate information is very important and could save lives. As a result, it’s difficult to filter what should be trusted and what should be deleted.
Today, we are watching the tropical situation down in the Caribbean Sea. Data shows this is our most favorable zone for the potential for our next named storm.
But, there are currently no significant features present on the map at this point. Yet, if you were to open social media, we’re confident you will find a number of sources plastering the scariest model solutions they can find all over your feed.
Meteorology is a very careful science. Meteorologists are scientists in a very dynamic field. Computer models are created using very intricate scientific rules alongside heavily sophisticated mathematical and physics derived equations. Meteorologists are trained in these same rules and formulas in order to best interpret what the computers generate to then communicate to their viewers.
This is not something you can simply sit down and Google to find an answer. It takes years of experience to learn careful rules of thumb and natural biases. Only after several years of quality experience can you begin to recognize certain forecast model patterns that help when building a forecast for your community.
When you stumble across misleading or dramatic thumbnails, what is likely occurring is a reaction by the content creator to a specific model run. They simply see what would be an intense solution based on one specific outcome of a particular model and get excited enough to share it on their social media platform, whether it be YouTube, Instagram, X, Tiktok, etc.
This is not meteorology. This is not forecasting. This is sensationalizing a “could be” and more often than not incorrect outcome produced at a time far in advance of an event occurring.
There is a method to the madness that we call weather forecasting. And no, it isn’t something that we control…
Get today’s headlines in minutes with Your Florida Daily: