ORLANDO, Fla. – The News 6 Pinpoint Weather Team is closely monitoring a newly-formed subtropical storm and two tropical waves, with a focus on one in the southwestern Caribbean.
As of 8 a.m. Saturday, the National Hurricane Center has indicated a 60% chance of tropical development in the next two days, increasing to 80% over the next week. This tropical wave could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to islands such as Jamaica and Cuba.
Forecast models suggest that as this wave moves north and northwest, it could develop into a storm, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by midweek. However, there’s uncertainty about its path.
Depending on steering currents and high-pressure systems, the storm could head toward the eastern Gulf if it weakens, or the western Gulf if it remains strong. A frontal boundary could also influence its trajectory later in the week, possibly redirecting it back to the eastern Gulf.
In November, cooler waters, wind shear, and dry air typically hinder storm formation, which adds to the unpredictability.
The second area being monitored is a tropical wave near the Greater Antilles, with a low chance of development (10%) over the next week. There’s a possibility that it could merge with the low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean.
Out in the northern Atlantic, subtropical storm Patty has formed. As of 5 a.m. Saturday, it was located 420 miles west-northwest of the Azores with wind speeds of 50 mph, moving east-southeast at 7 mph.
Hurricane season runs through November. The next name on the list is Rafael.
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