ORLANDO, Fla. – Odds continue to increase for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean Sea over the next 24-48 hours, deemed Invest 97 by the National Hurricane Center.
As of Sunday at 1 p.m., the NHC has placed an 90% chance for tropical formation in the next 2-7 days.
Satellite observations show Invest 97L taking shape. Hurricane hunter aircrafts are scheduled to investigate this tropical wave on Sunday to sample the atmosphere and gather data for computer models as we monitor the progression. It could become a tropical depression or potential tropical cyclone within a day or two.
This could bring heavy rain, strong winds, and dangerous swells to Caribbean islands such as Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba early this week.
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This system could potentially move into the Gulf of Mexico around midweek according to tropical models.
As it moves north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, staying offshore along Florida’s west coast, it could begin to bring rain and storms to Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
Factors such as stronger wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler ocean temperatures may limit significant strengthening.
Most models keep the storm at Tropical Storm strength (with winds between 39 and 73 mph), though a few suggest it could reach Category 1 strength.
By late Wednesday, the models suggest a storm near the Cape Coral area, still offshore. After that, the models diverge: some track it toward the Big Bend area, while others push it farther west toward southeast Louisiana by next weekend.
As the storm evolves, models will begin to have a better handle on its path and intensity, but for now, both are still uncertain.
Another tropical wave near the Greater Antilles has a 10% chance of developing over the next week, but it may merge with the low pressure forming in the southwestern Caribbean.
The next names on the list are Rafael and Sara.
Meanwhile, Subtropical storm Patty has formed in the northeastern Atlantic and is moving east toward Europe. It’s expected to bring rough seas and heavy rain to the Azores through Monday.
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