Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 11N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 07N and between 19W and 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 13N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is present near the wave axis in the Caribbean.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 28N and 37W.

Gulf Of America

The pressure gradient between a broad subtropical ridge over the Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico sustain fresh SE winds and moderate seas over much of the western and south- central Gulf waters. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. No convection is present in the basin.

Agricultural fires in SE Mexico and Central America are causing hazy conditions in the western Gulf waters, with the worst conditions occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Mariners are advised to use caution due to decreased visibilities in these waters.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through late week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through mid-week.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft is sustaining scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of Hispaniola, the Windward Passage, and in the waters between Cuba and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical high to the north and low pressure over Colombia is supporting strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue night, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends southwestward from 31N59W to 25N71W. Coupling with an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate to isolated convection is occurring north of 21N and between 65W and 73W. Most of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge centered near 31N36W. The pressure gradient between this high and low pressure along the monsoon trough and ITCZ is leading to fresh trades S of 23N, with gentle winds to the north. Moderate seas generally prevail, although an area of rough seas exist from 05N to 22N W of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and rough seas with E swell east of the Leeward Islands and N of Hispaniola today. A weak surface trough from E of Bermuda to around 25N72W will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid- week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik