Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force NW to N winds and rough seas of 12 to 16 ft in N swell are expected over portions of the northwestern tropical Atlantic Sun evening through Mon morning, in the wake of a cold front expected to move off the coast of the southeastern United States early this afternoon. Widespread strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas in NW to N swell are expected from the Bahamas, northward and west of 50W through Tue morning, then will reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean Tue night. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE Wed through Wed night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong to near-gale force N winds, associated with a strong storm system that has move inland across NW Africa, has generated a significant area of large, long period N to NE swell in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Seas 12 ft or greater are expected north of 10N and east of 45W through Sun afternoon, with 12 ft seas expanding farther west to 50W by early Mon. Seas will peak near 22 ft near the Canary Islands. The swell direction is N to NE at 13-19 sec periods. Seas will slowly diminish from northeast to southwest early this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00.5N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 01N to 11N east of 31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02.5N to 05.5N between 37W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

A middle to upper-level trough is moving slowly eastward across the southeast Gulf this morning, and interacting with abundant low level moisture lifting northward across the Bahamas, south Florida and the Straits of Florida to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across that area. A surface trough is analyzed along the western coast of Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail through the Straits of Florida. Farther west, a surface trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between these features, and weak ridging to the northeast, is supporting moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay, as observed on recent scatterometer data. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over the W Atlantic will continue to slide northeastward and into the central Atlantic today. This will allow the next cold front to enter the northern Gulf this morning. Strong northerly winds and quickly building seas will follow the front. This front is expected to reach the south- central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front Tue through Thu.

Caribbean Sea

A 1008 mb low prevails over northern Colombia, with weak ridging across the western Atlantic to the north of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting widespread fresh trade winds and 7 to 8 ft seas over the central and eastern basin, as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data. Strong E winds are noted offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with seas to 10 ft occurring west of the strongest winds. In the northwestern Caribbean, Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail, as moisture associated with an old front is shifting westward across the area. Moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail there. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas in E swell continue over the Atlantic waters and the passages into the eastern Caribbean. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough as it extends eastward along 10N and into NW Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through midday today before winds begin to diminish as Atlantic high pressure shifts well NE of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then will begin to stall and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure will build into the W Atlantic Wed night through Thu night to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on GALE WARNINGS for the western Atlantic Ocean, and a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N50W southwestward through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba, and has begun to drift northwestward in recent hours to the west of 70W. Widespread low to middle level moisture associated with the front is shifting north and northwestward across the waters from the front to 30N, and interacting favorably with the upper trough across the SE Gulf of America and upper ridging to it's east to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of the front. Moderate S winds are occurring north of this front as high pressure shifts off to the northeast. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft in N to NW swell are noted in the central Atlantic north of 26N and east of 65W. To the east of the front, a 1029 mb high is centered near 32N33W and extends a broad ridge south and southwestward to the southeast Bahamas. The pressure gradient to the south continues to yield fresh to strong trade winds across the tropical Atlantic south of 25N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Widespread rough seas in E swell cover most of the open Atlantic Ocean, with seas over 12 ft in N swell and strong to near-gale force winds occurring offshore of northwestern and western Africa and extending to 40W. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for additional information.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters E of NE Florida, E of 79W. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States by midday today, followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly building seas through Mon morning. Gale-force winds are expected immediately behind the front Sun evening through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from just E of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and then begin to stall from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue morning. Large N swell will build in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through Tue before subsiding. Elsewhere, a stationary front currently extending from 29N55W through the central Bahamas and across NW Cuba is accompanied by active showers and thunderstorms. This boundary will drift northward today and gradually dissipate.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling