..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues westward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 03N35W and to NE Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 06N and between 15W and 25W.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure north of the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Isolated showers are noted in the Bay of Campeche and north of Yucatan, while generally dry weather conditions are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the United States will lead to moderate E winds through mid-week. Winds will then veer southerly ahead of a cold front that may move off the Texas coast by Thu night. An increase in moisture and light winds will favor at least patchy fog along the NW Gulf coast on Tue and Wed mornings.

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Caribbean waters, while generally drier conditions are prevalent in the rest of the basin. A moderate pressure gradient sustains moderate to locally strong NE-E winds over much of the Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring in the Windward Passage due to a nearby frontal boundary. Moderate seas are found in the Caribbean waters, peaking near 8 ft off eastern Nicaragua based on a recent altimeter pass.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the basin, increasing the pressure gradient over the area and causing moderate NE to E winds to increase to fresh to strong Mon into Tue night. Winds will then relax some for the latter half of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from a couple hundred miles SE of Bermuda to 26N70W, then it becomes a stationary front and snakes its way to the Treasure Coast of Florida. A few light showers are noted near and north of this boundary, especially west of 70W. Moderate to locally strong NE winds are noted north of the frontal boundary, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The strongest winds are occurring off NE Florida. Farther east, another cold front enters the basin near 31N56W and continues southwestward to 25N63W, becoming a stationary front and continuing to northern Haiti. Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery within 250 nm east of the boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh N-NE winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas in these waters are also 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present ahead of the front to 48W and north of 28N.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a robust 1043 mb high pressure system positioned NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE-E winds north of 11N and east of 35W. This was confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass from a couple hours ago. Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking near 12 ft west of the Canary Islands. In the rest of the waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (south of 20N), moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal boundary that currently extends from 31N56W to Hispaniola will drift E of the area by midweek. High pressure building behind the front will lead to increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough seas likely late Mon into Tue night. A surface trough off the SE United States coast may least to fresh to strong winds offshore NE Florida early this week.

Posted 29 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado