Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to near 02N19W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N19W to 03S43W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator-03N between 24W-37W.

Gulf Of America

Surface ridging extends north of the Gulf of America today, causing gentle to moderate return flow SE winds across the Gulf. Seas are 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the extreme NE Gulf between Tampa and Cedar Key, supported by an upper-level trough. Dense fog was reported within the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region early this week, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the NW and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through Thu to support fresh to strong southerly winds across most of the basin and moderate to rough seas.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central and NE Caribbean today, with strong to near gale just north of Colombia. Trades elsewhere are gentle to moderate. Seas are 8-10 ft north of Colombia and 3-7 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will again build N of the Caribbean Sea toward the middle of the week to bring a significantly strengthen in the trade wind flow and building seas across most of the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N42W to 26N52W. While no significant winds are noted with the front, scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of the front. A trough in the E Atlantic extends from a 1010 mb low near 32N21W to 23N28W. Fresh winds are located north of 28N on both sides of the trough. Seas are 8-10 ft in NE swell north of 25N between 25W-33W. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between a 1029 mb Bermuda High near 33N60W and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong trades and seas 7-10 ft south of 27N and west of 35W. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring just east of Florida, north of 25N and west of 78W in association with an upper-level trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will drift slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon. As a result, winds and seas will diminish modestly across the forecast region. However, an area fresh to strong E winds will persist along the southern periphery of the ridge, affecting mainly the waters S of 25N and E of the Windward Passage through early Tue. At that time, a cold front will move off the SE United States coast and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed. High pressure will then build again across the region Wed night through Thu night, bringing an increase in winds and seas mainly across the waters S of 24N.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea