Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States, north of 30N and east of 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas today through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur north of 30N today and tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of 28N between 77W and 65W. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east of 65W.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 04N30W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 40W and 49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 11N between 20W and 35W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from 30N83W to 29N87W to 29N90W in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent scatterometer satellite data show strong N to NW winds occurring north of 27.5N and east of 87.5W ahead of the front. Marine observations indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft near these winds. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds, confirmed by scatterometer satellite data, are occurring across central and eastern portions of the basin, as well as in far southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted in the Yucatan Channel behind a cold front moving through the central Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, building high pressure in the western Gulf is supporting light to gentle N to NE winds and slight to locally moderate seas.

For the forecast, the cold front moving through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to support fresh NW winds across the eastern half of the basin this morning, and strong N winds will occur north of 27N and east of 88.5W. Locally rough seas will occur near the strongest winds. Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft will continue through the Yucatan Channel this morning behind the cold front in the central Caribbean. Winds across the basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Sat morning as high pressure develops over the southeastern United States. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds look to develop over the western Gulf Sun into early next week ahead of developing low pressure in the central United States.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from 21N77W to 17N80W to 14N83W. Widely scattered convection is noted in the central Caribbean near the front. Recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and moderate seas occurring behind the front, impacting most of the northwestern Caribbean. Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are occurring through the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, the eastern edge of the Pacific monsoon trough is leading to scattered moderate to locally strong convection south of 13N. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin, where light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from eastern Cuba to northern Nicaragua will progress southeastward through tonight to 20N77W to 10N83W, before stalling on Sat and gradually dissipating. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue in the wake of the front, with the strongest winds occurring offshore of Nicaragua tonight through Sat morning. Rough seas of 8 to 9 ft will continue behind the front through the Yucatan Channel this morning. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and high pressure building in the southeastern United States will promote fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages and in the lee of Cuba on Sat, and moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in E swell will develop across much of the basin Sun through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of the SW N Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N68W to 26N74W to 22N77W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and locally rough seas are occurring along and ahead of this front, generally north of 27N. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is moving into the region and is located from 31N78W to 30N81W. Widespread fresh winds are occurring along the east coast of Florida and strong winds are developing north of 29N between 73W and 81W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is analyzed over the northern Lesser Antilles from 17N63W to 23N58W; isolated showers are observed near this trough. Another trough, located from 25.5N to 31N39W trailing a cold front, is leading to scattered moderate convection along and to the east of the trough. NW swell behind this trough is supporting seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 28N between 42W and 57W. Otherwise, ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of the southeastern United States, north of 30N and east of 76W, in the wake of a reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas today through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur north of 30N today and tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of 28N between 77W and 65W. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east of 65W. Meanwhile, another cold front to the east of the aforementioned front will progress eastward today, with fresh to strong SW winds occurring along and ahead of the front. Winds associated with both fronts will merge on Sat before the system lifts to the north of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas will prevail south of 20N into next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams