ORLANDO, Fla. – Latest climate models continue to double down that El Niño isn’t just likely by the summer, it could be among the strongest in recorded history.
In the modern era, since 1950, the strongest El Niño reached 2.5° Celsius above normal.
That anomaly is from recording the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific off of the coast of Peru.
To be considered an El Niño, the anomaly must grow to .5° Celsius or greater.
Going back to the late 1800s, the strongest becomes the El Niño of 1877 reaching 2.7° Celsius.
The latest European ensembles depict a real chance of eclipsing the El Niño from the late 1800s.
Each red line represents a model member of the European ensemble. About half show the anomaly growing greater than 3°.
What it means for Florida
Hurricane season 2026
In an El Niño year, typically, the Atlantic hurricane season is quieter with fewer named storms. This doesn’t mean impacts will be lower as Hurricanes Michael and Andrew, 2018 and 1992, respectively, both formed during an El Niño.
Still, there should be fewer named storms during the 2026 season.
The clearer signal comes during the cool season, as above-normal rainfall typically arrives during an El Niño.
Long-range models suggest that the upcoming December and January will be very wet relative to the normally dry stretches during the Florida dry season.
This pattern would likely prevent a widespread drought from forming next season.
The chance for severe weather also increases during the cool months in Florida.