TAMPA, Fla. – Researchers with the University of South Florida released a new timeline of when Florida could reach herd immunity and found that has been delayed due to a decrease in cases and vaccinations.
Dr. Edwin Michael is a professor of epidemiology and disease modeling at USF. He’s tracking the latest on COVID and how soon the state could reach herd immunity.
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He said reaching herd immunity will depend on one thing.
“How long is immunity going to last?” Michael said.
According to his latest projections, 80% of Floridians have immunity either from the COVID vaccine or after recovering from the virus. He said the goal is to reach 85%, which could happen by the end of the month, according to his models.
Previous models showed Florida would reach herd immunity by Saturday, Sept. 11, but Michael said that’s now pushed back because of a drop in cases and vaccinations.
“The models are trending towards a positive result, but we just have to wait for surprises,” he said.
Michael cautions variables could impact the models, including virus mutations, breakthrough cases, and determining how long immunity lasts. He said if immunity is long term, then this could be the last wave. But if immunity wans over time, Michael said we won’t reach herd immunity.
“The herd immunity will just be cycling. The approach would be delayed and then you might see a dip in the people who are immune, so you’ll never reach herd immunity and the offshoot of that is you’re going to get resurgences,” he said.
Michael said booster shots could also play a role in prolonging immunity and help prevent future surges.
He said he is cautiously optimistic. He adds if we continue with vaccinations, there aren’t any serious variants, and if immunity is long term, then his projections show we could see an end to the pandemic by the end of the year.