ORLANDO, Fla. – Since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March 2022, analysts have warned a recession will eventually hit the United States. Despite the Fed’s aggressive streak of rate hikes, though, consumers keep spending, employers keep hiring and the American economy is still managing to grow.
The “Stock Doctor” Lee Siler joined anchor Justin Warmoth on “The Weekly” to give his take on whether a recession is still in sight given all of the positive economic data that’s poured in throughout the first half of the year.
“At this point it looks like the market is pricing in a very mild recession,” Siler said. “Look, we’ve had an inverted yield curve since March of 2022. We’ve had two negative quarters of GDP. But all of that is out the window because until the NEBR decides we’re in a recession, we’re not in a recession. That’s the group that makes that decision.”
The Federal Reserve has said it’s trying to achieve a “soft landing,” which means growth slows but consumers and businesses spend enough to avoid a full-blown recession.
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After ten consecutive rate increases, the Fed chose to leave the policy rate unchanged at the 5%-5.25% range during its June meeting.
Siler said he expects at least two more rate hikes in the near future and the possibility of a rate cut by year’s end.
“I relate the economy to scuba diving,” he said. “When you’re scuba diving you have a buoyancy control device. What you’re trying to do is just float along the bottom and not hit the coral reef. If you start sinking too much you want to pump a little air into it. If you’re going up too much, let a little air out. That’s what Fed’s doing. They’re trying to find that buoyancy in the economy.”
Watch the full interview in the video player above.
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