What’s going on, guys?! Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you for another edition of Tropics Watch! It was great seeing you for an evening edition of Tropics Watch LIVE. If you missed it check it out here.
There’s some heavy rain coming to Florida...especially southwest Florida. Most of this will be great news, but flooding is possible with more than a foot of rain expected.
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Tropical development is unlikely prior to the tropical moisture surge coming to the Sunshine State. After that though we could be looking at two areas potentially competing to be the first tropical depression.
Below is a probability map from the European Ensembles for tropical storm development. The brighter the color, the higher the chance for a tropical storm to develop.
The time period would be late in the week or early next week. (Jun 14- June 20)
One of the things that already has me fuming is that people (social media) are already calling the season a bust. Believe me, I would LOVE it if those extremely high forecasts busted, but the fact we haven’t had a storm yet unfortunately means nothing.
All of this is just recency bias due to past early starts. Take a look....
That’s it for now!
- Jonathan
More about the Tropics Watch Newsletter....
There is a lot of noise out there when it comes to the weather. A lot of hype, a lot of clickbait etc. You have my word that you will never see any of those scare tactics from me and News 6. Seeing this myself makes my blood boil.
We’re going to talk about a lot of stuff (hopefully while everything remains out at sea), but we will do so with sound science and meteorology.
It is my hope to have a conversation about the weather this season and to my pass along everything I know so that you know what to look out for.
You can expect an e-mail from me every Monday (and as needed) during hurricane season. If it’s quiet, we’re going to talk about it. If there’s something going on out there, we’re definitely going to be talking about it. We also have a live tropics show that airs on our YouTube channel every Monday at 11 a.m.
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter! You can also watch the special on June 3rd at 8 p.m. by downloading the FREE News 6+ app! You can watch all of the newscasts on here as well. You can download that on your smart T.V. or other streaming devices.
Weather Wise
If you crave weather content, I have a show that airs Monday through Friday at 8 a.m. On News 6+. We get in-depth and hyper-local with the weather.
There is also a tropical update every morning at about 8:06 so you can see if anything is brewing.
Pinpoint Hurricane App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
Ok now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
-Jonathan