Well, here we are. The last Monday of hurricane season. Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges back with you with the last entry for the 2024 hurricane season.
Before we get into a little recap, there’s still buzz out there of another system developing in the Caribbean. There is a very small signal on some ensemble guidance, but conditions are pretty hostile for development with wind shear.
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So, most of that is just the final round of hurricane hype as the season comes to close. In any event, that system would stay in the Caribbean IF it were to try and develop.
The GFS shows a moderate signal.
The Euro shows nothing. We’re looking for a flare up up yellow and orange by the way on the charts.
So one final time, and believe me I’ll back beating the drum next season, there is also more to the story when you see something posted on social media.
Noteworthy Stats
With that said, we are putting an extremely impactful hurricane season behind us.
This was a weird season. It started off with a bang with the earliest category five storm (Beryl) and then essentially went just about quiet through the season’s peak.
Then, by late September, a switch was flipped and a record late-season push of activity rolled through the Atlantic basin.
An Impactful Season
Prior to the season we said this would likely be an impactful season. The signal was clear that the storms during the 2024 would have a much higher chance to impact land.
Boy did they ever.
The 2024 season now ranks as the second costliest hurricane season on record. This number is unfortunately still climbing as losses continue to be tallied.
Seasonal Forecast Verification
There was a lot of push back to Colorado State University and NOAA when they each issued their most active initial forecast ever. It was called hype by many during the quiet stretch in August and September. I’m here to tell you that they nailed it when it was all said and done. Those organizations don’t hype by the way. That’s left for folks on YouTube and social media.
Every season when these seasonal forecasts come out I always say to look at the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forecast. That really tells the story. Included in the total are the typically short-lived storms in the middle of nowhere. In 2024 we didn’t have many of those types of storms to run up the score so to speak.
Look at how well they did!
If it wasn’t for those unforeseen dynamics that kept the peak of hurricane season quiet, the forecasts may have been too low.
I know next year, though, the narrative will be ‘oh there they go hyping again.’ Please don’t fall into that and help me fight the good fight.
Thank you!
Lastly, I want to thank everyone who opened up this up e-mail, watched the Tropics Watch livestreams and found our updates on clickorlando.com. Us at WKMG News 6 do not take the trust you put in us lightly.
I truly appreciate the conversations we have had this season. Let’s hope next year we can hang out as we watch these things stay out at sea. VERY early indications are we may me see more curve away from land. But that’s a next story for another time as we will watch and see how the atmosphere evolves over winter and spring. Enjoy the holiday
Until then enjoy the holidays and we’ll catch you June 1.
Jonathan
There is a lot of noise out there when it comes to the weather. A lot of hype, a lot of clickbait etc. You have my word that you will never see any of those scare tactics from me and News 6. Seeing this myself makes my blood boil.
We’re going to talk about a lot of stuff (hopefully while everything remains out at sea), but we will do so with sound science and meteorology.
It is my hope to have a conversation about the weather this season and to my pass along everything I know so that you know what to look out for.
You can expect an e-mail from me every Monday (and as needed) during hurricane season. If it’s quiet, we’re going to talk about it. If there’s something going on out there, we’re definitely going to be talking about it. We also have a live tropics show that airs on our YouTube channel every Monday at 8p.m. and News 6+
Ways to stay connected this hurricane season
News 6+
If you live outside of Central Florida or don’t have cable, first of all thank you for finding the Tropics Watch newsletter!
Weather Wise
If you crave weather content, I have a show that airs Monday through Friday at 7 a.m. On News 6+ We get in-depth and hyper-local with the weather.
There is also a tropical update every morning at about 8:06 so you can see if anything is brewing.
Pinpoint Hurricane App
Even if you are outside of Central Florida download this app! This is the best hurricane app on the market and its FREE. As soon as the National Hurricane Center names something, you’re going to know about. It’s a great way to follow the season if you like doing that. Search WKMG in your app store and make sure you find the hurricane one.
YouTube
If you live in Central Florida subscribe to the WKMG/Clickorlando page.
If you love the weather whether you’re in Central Florida or not, subscribe to JustWeather!
Clickorlando.com/hurricane is also a great resource no matter where you live.
Alright. I have rambled on enough. Just wanted to make you aware of where you can find trustworthy and in-depth weather content this season.
One last thing. This is a two-way street. I/we are here for you. Any ideas? Like or hate something? Have any questions? Let me know. Shoot me an e-mail at jkegges@wkmg.com. Find me on facebook or twitter.
We’re in this together. We have families here too. You’re going to get the same info we give to them. Thank you for your trust. We don’t take that responsibility lightly.
Ok now I’m done.
Talk to you soon!
-Jonathan