ORLANDO, Fla. – Have you ever watched a TV newscast and seen a weather map with spaghetti-like models tracks all over the place and wondered which one is the most accurate? Join the club.
Unfortunately, no single model has been able to crack the code and predict the future perfectly.
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Don’t get me wrong, computer models have come a long way in recent history, but each has its own strengths and weaknesses.
Before the National Hurricane Center releases the official forecast cone for a certain storm, meteorologists compile data from several sources to make the most educated path prediction. The sources include data pulled from hurricane hunters, surface observations and computer models.
The best models are accurate and consistent.
Most model runs update several times a day. But no matter which model has been the “best," forecasters at the NHC take an overall consensus of their best models to forecast a storm's track and intensity.
Watching only one model is not the way to go.
Some models are stronger at predicting intensity versus track, and vice versa. Understanding each of their strengths and weaknesses also plays a role in forecasting each storm.
At the end of each hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center releases a report on the models' overall performance of their predictions, weighing which models were the top performers.
According to their report for the 2017 hurricane season, the best models were:
- EGRR (U.K. Met Office Global Model)
- GFS (Global Forecast System)
- AEMN (Global Ensemble Forecast System)
- HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System)
The worst models were:
- CTCI (NRL COAMPS-TC w/ GFS initial and boundary conditions)
- HMNI (Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model)
- NVGI (Navy Global Environmental Model)
It’s important to note that even the best models fell short of the exact tracks.
Just like us, models have good and bad years. Some work better with certain storms and specific weather changes.
Just because a certain model worked better than others in 2017 does not guarantee that those same models will nail the forecasts for this season.