ORLANDO, Fla. – We are pinpointing rain chances for the first half of Wednesday in Central Florida.
An area of low pressure off of our East Coast will spin and give us a chance for increased rain at 40% through the noon hour. For the afternoon, rain chances will taper off.
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High temperatures will be close to 90 degrees over the next couple of days. Because of moisture coming in from the tropics, there’s a chance for increased rain this weekend.
Models are in disagreement as to exactly where the system will go. Some models bring it to Central Florida, dropping 4 to 6 inches of rain over the weekend. Some take it to South Florida, which which would mean no rain for Central Florida.
Chances are we will at least see some rain from the system.
The normal high temperature in Orlando on this date is 90. The record high is 100, set in 1945.
Pinpointing the tropics
A large area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by the weekend as it moves northeast into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida Peninsula.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday said there’s a 70% chance of tropical development over the next two days and an 80% chance over the next five days.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough located about 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it interacts with an upper-level trough.
Surface pressures are currently high across the area and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeast over the next several days, away from the southeastern United States.
The NHC said there’s a 10% chance of development over the next five days.