ORLANDO, Fla. – Conditions into next week will continue to become more unsettled as a low-pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic approaches the Florida east coast by mid-week. However, confidence is increasing in the potential for coastal flooding, beach erosion, heavy rainfall, gusty winds and rough surf.
By Monday, a stronger northeasterly wind will become more noticeable. Beach and coastal conditions look to deteriorate further with breaking waves of at least 5-6 feet and a high risk of rip currents in the surf zone. Coastal flooding may also materialize in association during high tide along with beach erosion, especially for areas made more vulnerable in the wake of Hurricane Ian.
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Long range models for this area are uncertain with the strength and path. The GFS model keeps conditions drier compared to a much wetter EURO model for east Central Florida by Tuesday and Wednesday. With that being said, rain chances will become more likely by mid-week for most areas east of Orlando.
As of the 8 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 80% chance of development in the next five days.
As the system approaches the Florida east coast, winds will increase to 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph, making for dangerous beach and sea conditions.
For areas further inland, strong northerly winds may also slow or temporarily prevent the decline of the St. Johns River from previous rain from Hurricane Ian.
Impacts: Next Week
- Rough surf: 5-6ft waves
- Dangerous rip currents
- Breaking waves: 7-9 feet
- Beach erosion
- Coastal flooding (especially during high tides)
- Scattered showers & Storms
- Gusty winds 20-30 mph (gusts up to 40 mph)
Again, the forecast for next week remains uncertain, so make sure to stay tuned to News 6 through the weekend for the latest updates.
The National Hurricane Center is also highlighting another area near Bermuda with a 70% chance for development that will not impact the U.S.
The system appears to be acquiring some tropical characteristics as it separates from a nearby decaying frontal system. If these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form tonight or on Sunday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward and northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of next week, and further development is not expected beyond that time.
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