ORLANDO, Fla. – For your Sunday, conditions will look a lot like Saturday. With a strong ridge of high pressure to our north and a developing low to our south, we will stay with a steady onshore breeze. Along the breeze, we will see a 30% chance of speedy showers racing through the area, with highs remaining above average in the mid-to-upper 80s.
We are keeping a close eye on a developing late-season area in the Tropics that could become a subtropical or tropical storm within the next couple of days. As it lifts from the Caribbean, models are coming to better agreement that it will bring significant impacts to east Central Florida by midweek.
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By Monday, a noticeable uptick in northeast winds (10-15 mph) will occur as the tropical low moves in the Atlantic and closer to Florida. The National Hurricane Center continues to highlight a high chance of subtropical or tropical development of this system (70-90%). It could get the name Nicole or Owen depending on the development of another area in the Tropics.
Along with a stronger wind gusts (30-35 mph), deteriorating conditions are expected along the coast. Life-threatening rip currents, choppy surf and large breaking waves will continue in addition to a growing concern for beach erosion around the times of high tide.
For Monday, rain chances will again be largely confined to coastal locations with a few isolated showers pushing west of Interstate 95.
By Tuesday, we could see wind gusts up to 30 mph inland and up to 40 mph along the coast. Worsening conditions continue with seas forecast to reach 9-13 feet nearshore.
By Wednesday, a strong subtropical or tropical system will be picking up speed and some intensity as it moves southwestward toward the northern Bahamas. Models suggest tropical moisture arriving as early as Wednesday afternoon. The EURO model guidance is faster taking a more southward trajectory, where the GFS brings a slower storm across Central Florida and into the Panhandle. The slowest model is the Canadian, showing the system approaching by Thursday afternoon.
With that being said, and with many communities still dealing with impacts from Hurricane Ian, we should not take this system lightly. Depending on the low’s strengths and track, impacts with rainfall and flooding could be a big concern.
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