ORLANDO, Fla. – Subtropical Storm Nicole formed early Monday less than 500 miles from the Bahamas, and computer models show the system becoming a hurricane before hitting Florida, with the Orlando area squarely in its sights.
By Monday night, Nicole was 415 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas, heading northwest at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
Nicole is expected to take a turn the west or west-southwest Tuesday through early Thursday. In the meantime, tropical storm warnings have been put into effect for the east coast of Florida.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the coast. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been extended further inland. A hurricane watch also remains in effect for Brevard. pic.twitter.com/S00bn2wFLV
— Jonathan Kegges (@JonathanKegges) November 8, 2022
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Tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas within 36 hours.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nicole could be a hurricane by Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles to the east of the center.
On its current forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night.
“It’s not out of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas,” the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory. “It should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole’s ultimate intensity, the storm’s large size will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much of the upcoming week.”
If Nicole were to hit Florida as a hurricane, it would become the third time in recorded history (since the late 1800s) that a hurricane made landfall in Florida in November. Twelve tropical storms have struck Florida in November, the most recent being Eta in 2020.
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IF Nicole does make landfall as a hurricane, it would only be the THIRD time in history (late 1800s) a hurricane made landfall in Florida in November. There have been 12 tropical storms. Most recent is Eta in 2020. pic.twitter.com/fP4KtOrzUN
— Jonathan Kegges (@JonathanKegges) November 7, 2022
A hurricane watch is in effect for the East Coast of Florida from the Volusia-Brevard County line to Hallandale Beach. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Altamaha Sound south to the Brevard-Indian River county line. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
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Here is the 10 p.m. advisory and forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. pic.twitter.com/RpOSFvZXtI
— Jonathan Kegges (@JonathanKegges) November 8, 2022
Large parts of Florida are still reeling from destructive Hurricane Ian, which slammed into the southwestern portion of the state in Sept. 28 as a strong Category 4 hurricane and dumped massive amounts of rain, causing flooding across Central Florida.
Hurricane season runs through November.
In Central Florida, the current forecast shows strong rip currents over the next several days, with heavy rain expected later in the week. Beach erosion is also very likely.
In Orlando, high temperatures Monday will be in the mid-80s.
Rain chances increase to 30% Tuesday before jumping to 60% Wednesday and 70% Thursday. Expect a 40% coverage of rain on Friday.
The weekend should be clear.
Check back for updates.