ORLANDO, Fla. – It’s becoming increasingly likely that a disturbance will develop in the Gulf of Mexico post Easter weekend. Just because a disturbance develops, however, doesn’t mean it will be tropical.
Social media has been lighting up in recent days calling for Arlene, the first named storm of the 2023 hurricane season, to develop late next week.
While there is an outside chance for subtropical development, it’s pretty low.
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First and foremost, this disturbance is being born from non-tropical origins. It will develop meteorologically by the baroclinic process, meaning it will strengthen by way of temperature and pressure differences in the atmosphere rather than the warm ocean water.
Tropical cyclones develop by way of the barotropic process, keeping the difference in temperature and atmospheric pressure relatively uniform.
Sometimes we can get a hybrid storm, known as a subtropical storm, where there are differences in temperature and pressure present, but it also gains strength by the warmer water.
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An upper low is expected to dig into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. This will help to generate an area of low pressure at the surface.
In addition to being born by non-tropical processes, the environment the low will be developing in contains a lot of wind shear, which developing tropical systems don’t like. The air is also very dry which is another deterrent to tropical development.
The water temperature is much above average in the northern Gulf of Mexico, so there is an outside chance to take on subtropical characteristics.
Regardless, in a situation like this, it’s all semantics. Impacts will be the same for the north Gulf coast and Florida peninsula whether it gets a name or not. It will be breezy Wednesday and Thursday for that region. Heavy rain will also be possible for the peninsula as the system pulls in tropical moisture and the center itself drifts back into the Deep South.
That rain will generally be welcomed, with severe drought status through much of Central Florida.
With fronts still involved, however, there could be the chance for strong thunderstorms late in the week depending on how everything comes together.
The last time a named storm developed in the Atlantic basin was Tropical Storm Arlene in 2017.
Interestingly, the first name on the list for the 2023 season is also Arlene.
Colorado State University, a well-respected university for seasonal tropical forecasts, issues its first forecast for the upcoming season on April 13. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue their outlook in late May.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1. Daily updates from the National Hurricane Center begin May 15. Last season broke a record streak of seven consecutive seasons with a pre-season storm.
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