ORLANDO, Fla. – Last week on Forecasting Change, we talked about the “feels like” temperatures” going up. This week on Forecasting Change, we take a look at the increase in cooling needs as our climate warms.
As the Earth’s temperature rises, the frequency of scorching days and sweltering nights increases, leading to a growing need for cooling in our homes, schools, offices and hospitals.
To measure this cooling demand, a metric called Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is used. CDD values estimate the amount of cooling required to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature. These values are calculated by taking the difference between the daily average outdoor temperature and an engineering standard of 65 degrees Fahrenheit, which is considered the ideal indoor temperature.
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The demand for cooling, as indicated by daily CDD values, is at its peak during the hottest days of the year. However, any day with a temperature above 65 degrees Fahrenheit, even during warm spring and fall days, contributes to the CDD value. The sum of daily CDD values accumulated over a calendar year gives us the annual CDD value for a specific location.
Our Media Partners at Climate Central conducted a comprehensive analysis of historical temperature data from 1970 to 2022 in 240 locations across the United States. The study revealed that 232 out of the 240 locations (97%) experienced an increase in annual CDD since 1970.
Check out the rising demands for the U.S.
The regions that witnessed the most substantial rise in annual CDD since 1970 were the Southwest, South and Southeast. These areas allocate a significantly larger share of their energy budgets on air conditioning (up to 27% in Gulf Coast states) compared to the national average of 12%.
This graphic shows the increase in demand in Orlando since 1970.
Gainesville is in a similar situation.
States such as Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Texas and Florida had the most significant increase in CDD since 1970. Similarly, specific locations, including Las Vegas, Nevada; McAllen, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; Reno, Nevada; El Paso, Texas; Tucson, Arizona; and Albany, Georgia., experienced the largest surge in CDD.
Given the ongoing global warming, the rise in cooling demand is a trend that is expected to continue. Projections indicate that in the U.S., household cooling demand is anticipated to increase by 71% by 2050, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook. Commercial buildings are also expected to experience a 30% rise in cooling demand during the same period.
It is important to note that these projections might be underestimated as they only account for air temperature (CDD) and do not consider additional cooling demand due to humidity.
Furthermore, this growing demand for cooling is not unique to the U.S., where 90% of households already have air conditioning. Globally, cooling demand is projected to more than triple by 2050, consuming as much electricity as the combined usage of China and India today. This increased demand is attributed to rising temperatures and the expanding access to air conditioning in countries worldwide.
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