Hurricanes

Special Features

Gale-Force Wind Warning Along The Florida East Coast

The National Weather Service in Miami Florida has issued a warning for GALE-FORCE WINDS, for frequent gusts to gale-force. Expect also: strong to near gale-force E winds, and moderate to rough seas, through 1500 UTC on Sunday, from 22N to 29N between 77W and 82W. Please, read local bulletins and forecasts, at www.weather.gov/mfl, and the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of the borders of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, to 03N18W and 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W, to the Equator along 32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward from South America eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

Mostly strong and some fresh SE winds are in the eastern half of the area. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the western half of the area. Rough seas are from 22N northward from 92W westward, and in the Straits of Florida. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough extends from the Texas Big Bend, through 22N100W, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the NE quadrant of Honduras. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast.

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf coast states and lower pressure across E Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of the Gulf through Sun night before diminishing. Seas will peak near 10 ft in the NW and central Gulf through Sun. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

A shear line is along 23N66W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the northern parts of Haiti, to the Windward Passage, and to 16N77W in the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are to the north of the shear line, from Haiti and the Dominican Republic northward. Rainshowers are possible still, from 16N to 20N between 60W and 82W. Heavy rains and flooding have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last week. The threat of heavy rain appears to be diminishing. Localized flooding still is possible. Please, refer to bulletins from your local or national meteorological service for more details.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the Greater Antilles southward from 82W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong E to SE winds are from 16N northward from 82W westward. Gentle winds are within 135 nm of the land in the SW corner of the area between 79W for Panama and 83W for SE Nicaragua. Mostly slight seas, to some moderate seas, are from 70W eastward. Mostly moderate seas, to some slight seas, are between 70W and 83W. Moderate seas are in the NW corner of the area. The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a trough passes through Hispaniola to the SW corner of the area near 10N81W.

The Pacific Ocean Equatorial trough is in Colombia near 10N75W, through the southern sections of Panama, beyond 08N90W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 11N southward between Colombia and 79W.

A strong 1032 mb high pressure system over the western Atlantic will support fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly swell will bring seas of 8 ft through the passages in the NE Caribbean early next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean during the rest of the week.

Atlantic Ocean

A first cold front passes through 31N52W, to 25N60W, to 23N66W. A shear line continues from 23N66W, through the northern parts of Haiti, to the Windward Passage. A second cold front is passing through 31N56W, to 29N60W 28N65W 29N67W. Moderate to rough seas are from the first cold front northward between 70W and 76W. Rough seas are from the second cold front to 30N. Rough to very rough seas are from 30N northward, to the north of the second cold front. Moderate seas are elsewhere from the first cold front northward. Moderate seas are everywhere else in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 24N northward between 40W and the first cold front. Fresh NE winds are between the first cold front and the second cold front. Moderate or slower winds are everywhere else in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough is along 44W/45W from 14N to 22N. The trough is the remnant of the low pressure center that was in the area six hours ago. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 11N to 24N between 34W and 52W.

A second surface trough is along 57W and 58W from 18N to 23N. Upper level SW winds are moving through the area that is above the surface trough. Rainshowers are possible from 16N to 23N between 50W and 60W.

A third surface trough is along 28N/31N between 09W and 37W. This trough is the remnant of an earlier cold front. Moderate to rough seas are from 30N northward from 30W eastward. Mostly fresh NE winds are from 10N northward from 37W eastward.

A cold front extends from 29N55W to 22N66W, followed by a shear line to western Hispaniola. These boundaries will move E before stalling and weakening over the far southeastern waters late Sun through Mon night. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front to 65W tonight through Sun, with seas building seas to 12 ft over the NE waters by Sun. Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N and W of the front through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere into early next week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Sd