ORLANDO, Fla. – Not so fast. While it may seem like the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet to date, we are actually ahead of schedule.
To date we have had five named storms, including the unnamed storm that was found to have developed in January, with one of those becoming a hurricane.
On average, the fifth storm of the season doesn’t develop until Aug. 22, with the first hurricane forming on Aug. 11.
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From an intensity standpoint, we have almost double the energy. Accumulated cyclone energy or ACE is the measure of the energy used by a tropical system once it achieves tropical storm status.
As of July 23, that number is 16. The average to date is 8.6.
But the Atlantic is seeing record heat
It’s insanely hot. We have September-like temperatures in late July. It is important to note that even though the water is so hot, it doesn’t actually generate storms. The water is the fuel, so when we do get storms, given moisture and low wind shear, look out.
This portion of July is the quietest part of the hurricane season with the exception of late November. This is because of the lack of forcing.
We are transitioning out of homegrown storms in June, storms developing off of dying cold fronts from the U.S. mainland and from the Central America Gyre in the Caribbean to the Cabo Verde season in August, storms rolling off of Africa.
These storms are driven by the West African monsoon season.
This is why we typically see a lull in July as we are in between the two big seasons. It doesn’t always work out like this because of other weather phenomena.
Bret and Cindy were two very rare Central Atlantic storms, born of tropical waves from Africa in June and developing in part because of the unseasonably warm water temperature.
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Saharan dust has also been more prolific in the Atlantic basin over the last few weeks which helps to suppress tropical development. If storms can’t be maintained because of a hostile environment, it doesn’t matter how hot the water temperatures are.
Saharan Dust
The thickest plume of Saharan Dust of the season has made its way to Florida. It’s causing air quality issues in South Florida. The dust will become less dense by the end of the week.
Active Storms
Don, the season’s first hurricane, officially became post-tropical earlier Monday.
Invest 95L is inching closer to the Caribbean. There is still a small chance, 20%, that the disturbance could become a tropical depression as it impacts the Caribbean islands, but impacts on the islands will be the same regardless. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be likely for the Windward and Leeward islands.
There are no threats to Florida at this time.
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