ORLANDO, Fla. – The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is in September, but as we kickoff August, climatologically we’ll begin to see an uptick in tropical activity.
This season so far is the fourth most active season since 1851. As of July 30, 2023, we’ve seen one unnamed subtropical storm back in January and four named storms with one that strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through November 30. Usually, the first two months of the season are quiet.
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June averages one named storm every other year and July has averaged one named storm annually since 1950.
Since 1851, it’s typically been during the months of August, September and early October when we begin to see a rise in tropical activity.
With a predicted El Niño pattern, generally that setup suppresses tropical activity, so fewer hurricanes than average form in the Atlantic during August to October.
However, the above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean may change that.
Keep in mind that other factors are considered as well for a tropical storm or hurricane to develop.
Saharan dust is a huge factor for limiting the formation of tropical systems. Plumes usually move across the Atlantic and Caribbean beginning in May through July, but can happen any time of the year.
Around August, the dust minimizes and usually numerous African easterly waves begin to move off the coast over the ocean.
Instability increases, meaning thunderstorms develop, and due to the warm air rising from the oceans and allowing more energy for thunderstorms to fuel themselves, tropical cyclones try to organize.
Wind shear also plays a big part in making or breaking tropical development. If the wind shear is strong, that’ll make it difficult for a cluster of storms to organize.
In the month of August, the typical origins for tropical systems are in the Atlantic Basin, but they can certainly develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Those are called homegrown storms. Homegrown tropical systems develop from the northern Gulf of Mexico to waters along the southern Atlantic coast.
Below, areas of the Central Atlantic highlighted from pink to red, then to orange and finally yellow, illustrate a spectrum of where named storms could develop, ranging from “most likely” to “possible.”
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