ORLANDO, Fla. – We’re a little less than a month away from the peak time of hurricane season and things are beginning to wake up in the tropics. Most of the tropical activity increases between late August through early October. So, just as expected, the tropics is “waking up”.
As of August 17, 2023, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted three areas. One area in the Gulf of Mexico has a low chance of tropical development in the next 2-7 days. Two areas in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance in the next 7 days.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10th because that day is when the most named storms have meandered the Atlantic basin in the historical records dating back to 1851.
Early to mid-September is the time of the year where atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclones to form in the Atlantic are very favorable. The sea-surface temperatures reach their peak warmth levels of the season but note they’re already above normal, upper-level winds in the tropical Atlantic Ocean tend to be lighter, Saharan dust begins to thin out and is less widespread than earlier in the season, and disturbances continuously move off the western coast of Africa.
So far, for the season, there has been four tropical storms which were Arlene, Bret, Cindy. Then late July, Hurricane Don formed becoming the first hurricane of the season. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season so far has been normal.
Usually, four named storms and one hurricane develops by mid-August.
The National Hurricane Center did monitor a storm system that did have subtropical characteristics and is known as Unnamed Subtropical Storm. It formed in January 2023.
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