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CONE, MODELS, MORE: Idalia forecast to strike Florida as hurricane

Gov. Ron DeSantis declares state of emergency for large portion of Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. – Tropical Storm Idalia formed in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday, with a projected path that lurches through the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida’s Big Bend.

Forecasters are warning of possible flash flooding and landslides across the eastern Yucatán Peninsula and western Cuba as Florida braces for a possible hurricane by midweek. Tropical Depression 10 became a tropical storm at 11:15 a.m. Sunday off the coast of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency Saturday for most of the state’s Gulf coast as the weather system strengthens, moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC warned Saturday that the system could produce dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and strong winds to Florida’s Gulf coast and Panhandle by midweek.

[TRACK THE TROPICS: Computer models, official cone, satellite imagery in media player at the top of this story]

DeSantis’ declaration covers the Gulf coast from the southwestern city of Fort Myers north through Panama City in the Panhandle. Thirty-three of the state’s 67 counties are covered in the declaration.

DeSantis said in a statement that he issued his executive order “out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week.”

“I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” he said.

[MORE: 2023 storm names | What’s the ‘dirty’ side of a storm? | Plan, prepare]

Forecast models do not show Tropical Storm Idalia’s center approaching the areas of southwest Florida where deadly Hurricane Ian struck last year.

Sunday, the system will swirl over the Yucatán Channel, impacting the Yucatán Peninsula through the night as a tropical storm. Eventually on Monday, a trough to our north will develop, pulling Tropical Storm Idalia slowly northward into the Gulf.

Forecast models have the storm curving to the northeast toward Florida, coming ashore along the Gulf coast north of Tampa near the Big Bend area and then heading diagonally across the state to emerge again in the Atlantic Ocean near southeast Georgia.

Tropical Storm Idalia (Copyright 2023 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Cuba will likely begin to see tropical storm impacts beginning late Monday morning through the evening.

Idalia is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday afternoon or evening as it picks up some forward speed in the eastern Gulf. Florida is looking at a possible Category 3 hurricane to make landfall somewhere between Panama City and Tampa.

Marion County and a sliver of Flagler are in the forecast cone and hurricane-force winds should be expected along all coastal areas of the Big Bend.

Tropical Storm Idalia (Copyright 2023 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Impacts will likely be felt outside of the cone in Central Florida. Tropical downpours are expected to start by Tuesday or early Wednesday, including winds between 25-35 mph with stronger gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible in Central Florida, but it’s counties closer to the west that will feel a greater impact.

Tropical Storm Idalia (Copyright 2023 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

Depending on the placement of the storm, we could see brief spin ups if we’re on the northeast side. Rainfall over western counties such as Sumter, Marion, Lake and Polk could reach 2-4 inches, with Orange, Flagler, Volusia, Brevard and Seminole likely looking at 1-2 inches of rain. Higher amounts are expected locally in some areas.

Tropical Storm Idalia (Copyright 2023 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

So far this year, the U.S. East Coast has been spared from cyclones. But out west, Tropical Storm Hilary caused widespread flooding, mudslides and road closures earlier this month in Mexico, California, Nevada and points to the north.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said the 2023 hurricane season would be far busier than initially forecast, partly because of extremely warm ocean temperatures. The season runs through Nov. 30, with Sept. 10 considered the peak.

The next named storm will be Jose.

Check back for updates.