ORLANDO, Fla. – Idalia is forecast to make landfall in Florida as a major hurricane Wednesday morning somewhere along the Big Bend.
Models, however, are suggesting a return trip to the Sunshine State sometime late in the weekend or early next week. Is this possible?
You may recall Hurricane Ivan did something similar in 2004.
This could happen if wind shear completely decouples the storm.
Tropical systems are made up of several different vertical levels consisting of a low-level, mid-level and upper-level circulation.
In order for tropical systems to strengthen, these levels need to be perfectly stacked.
When wind shear, change of direction or speed with height is present, the storm can be ripped apart and the low-level center can be removed from the mid-level center.
The surface low, being at the surface, will follow the low-level steering current induced from the Bermuda high and drift back toward Florida.
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Meanwhile, the mid-level circulation will be pushed east toward the Central Atlantic from strong winds 10,000 to 20,000 feet above the surface.
In order for Idalia to be something significant for Florida on its potential return trip, it would have to re-fire thunderstorms around its center and start the development process over again.
This would be unlikely but if the low-level center was moving slow enough, given ample moisture and the extremely warm water, it could try and re-develop.
The most likely scenario, however, would be an increase in shower and thunderstorms early next week.
That’s if wind shear in the atmosphere completely rips apart the storm.
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