ORLANDO, Fla. – We told you in September that this winter would be crazy different in Florida.
So far, that has been exactly the case, with limited sunshine, frequent rain and stormy days and colder-than-normal temperatures.
So what about the rest of winter?
By now, you likely know that El Niño is the main culprit behind our grayer-than-normal season.
When El Niño is around, the subtropical jet stream is more active, leading to more clouds and rainy days.
El Niño is expected to stick around for the remainder of winter so more often than not, the impacts brought on by the phenomenon will continue.
In the short range, however, other smaller scale oscillations also influence the weather.
For example, the current blast of Arctic air is a result of a weak jet stream. This is measured by the Arctic Oscillation, currently in its negative phase.
Looking Forward
In the coming days, beyond January 23, indications are that the polar jet stream will strengthen and send the frigid air back to Canada. At the same time, high pressure looks to build over the southwest Atlantic and Caribbean, which will help pump in warmer air.
As a result, temperatures should not only return to normal in Florida, but we will likely swing back into the other direction, with above-average temperatures.
Giving more confidence to a major pattern change to warmer days post January 23 is the phase of the Madden-Julien Oscillation. The MJO is a disturbance of clouds, rainfall and pressure that moves east around the globe near the equator.
There are eight phases of the MJO, one for each region of the world the disturbance is currently in. When the entity enters phase 4 and 5, which it is expected to do over the next few weeks, the eastern U.S. is typically warmer than normal.
One thing to watch out for, however, with extra warmth and the continued active subtropical jet stream brought on by El-Nino: severe weather.
One of the reasons why the stormy days in Central Florida over the past few weeks haven’t been more damaging was the lack of instability of the fuel for storms to use. Without this, the storms, thankfully, were not able to take full advantage of the dynamic atmosphere in place.
With warmer air, there will naturally be more instability present.
Going into February, clouds and rainfall are likely to continue as the effects of a strong El-Nino remain in full force.
In the temperature department, as mentioned, expect a very warm end to January, The warmth may hang on to start February before more cold spills back into the eastern U.S.