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Forecasting Change: Coldest days losing their chill

On average, across 242 US locations since 1970, the chilliest day of the year has seen a warming of 7°F

File image of a frosty window in cold weather (Pixabay)

ORLANDO, Fl. – This winter season in Central Florida has exhibited a slightly cooler trend compared to recent years.

The influence of El Niño has contributed to increased cloud cover, more frequent showers and occasional brisk nights. While extreme cold events persist in our changing climate, they are becoming briefer and milder. This week in Forecasting Change, we look at the short and warmer cold snaps.

According to Climate Central’s analysis of 242 locations across the U.S. since 1970, the average warming of the coldest day of the year is 7°F. Notably, 97% of these locations, spanning every U.S. region, have experienced a minimum yearly temperature increase of at least 1°F. The most substantial warming has been observed in the Ohio Valley (8.7°F) and Northwest (8.4°F). But it is also warming in Florida. Check out the increase in the last 50 years of the lowest temperature of the year in Orlando.

Forecasting Change less extreme cold

The trend looks the same in Sarasota and Panama City.

Forecasting Change less extreme cold 2
Forecasting Change less extreme cold 3

The warming trend during the coldest period of the year has far-reaching consequences, impacting seasonal allergies, fruit and nut crops, water supplies, winter sports and more.

As we witness these changes, it underscores the interconnected nature of climate variations and their year-round effects on various aspects of our environment.


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