ORLANDO, Fla. – By the middle of the 2024 hurricane season, you’re going to notice something a little different: A new experimental cone will run along side the traditional cone we have come to know over the years.
I sat down with a National Hurricane Center meteorologist to explain the need for the new cone.
“It opens up a discussion where people realize that there’s a world beyond the cone,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
After years of research, the National Hurricane Center is looking into changes with its iconic tropical forecasting tool.
The reason for the change is people are paying too much attention to the cone and not to the potentially life-saving watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center.
The cone for Hurricane Ian in 2022, for example, was prominent over the state of Florida and the colors along the coast were for coastal watches and warnings issued by the hurricane center. The change you will see in August will show both of these side-by-side, so the old cone is not going away.
“So even if people don’t understand necessarily what all those colors mean, they’re going to walk away with a threat assessment,” said Rhome.
When news of the new cone first came out, people were like, “That looks more confusing than the initial one.”
“That sort of feedback was expected because that’s been the dialogue all along and that’s why it’s been, at times, frustrating that the cone didn’t evolve,” said Rhome.
In 2022 when Hurricane Ian was heading toward Florida, people were focused on the center of the cone pointed toward the Big Bend and Tampa. At that time, however, life-saving alerts were in place for southwest Florida, where the storm eventually made landfall. Many people chose not to evacuate.
“You gave the example of Ian. The storm surge watches and warnings were hoisted well in advance, ample notice, but people no longer look at watches and warnings anymore,” said Rhome.
And it’s the National Hurricane Center’s hope that with this change people will focus more on those hazards.
“The cone does have use, it does have application,” Rhome said. “You use it, I use it, it has application. So I’m not telling people to stop looking at the cone. I’m saying, ‘Yes, look at the cone and look at these other components at the same time.’”
Rhome wanted to make clear that this experiment is an evolution of the cone and will likely evolve further. You can help in that evolution by commenting on their website.