ORLANDO, Fla. – The anticipation surrounding the upcoming hurricane season being forecasted as super active is impossible to overlook. From online chatter to casual conversations, the burning question on everyone’s lips remains the same: “Why?”
Recently, I had the opportunity to sit down with Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University, a globally recognized figure in seasonal hurricane forecasting. He offered insights into the factors fueling this prediction for an active season.
As per the latest forecasts from Colorado State University, we’re bracing for a season packed with activity. But what’s driving these elevated storm expectations? It all boils down to the transition from El Niño to La Niña.
“The El Niño we experienced this past winter is dissipating rapidly. We’re likely to shift to neutral or La Niña conditions by the start of the hurricane season.”
El Niño, characterized by warmer waters over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically ushers in stronger westerly winds across the tropics, which in turn suppresses hurricane formation. Conversely, La Niña weakens these winds, creating a more favorable environment for hurricane development.
So, the first reason is the waning El Niño, followed by the emergence of La Niña. And the third reason? Ocean temperatures are on the rise.
“Combined with the fact that the Atlantic remains exceptionally warm. A warmer Atlantic provides more fuel for storms, leading to lower pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, all of which favor an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season,”
When formulating his forecasts, Klotzbach examines previous years with similar conditions. While some may dread this season mirroring the tumultuous year of 2004, Dr. Klotzbach draws parallels with 1887, 1926, and a few other significant years.
“We have 1998, which followed a massive El Niño year in ‘97. While ‘98 didn’t witness many hurricanes making landfall in the US, it had devastating impacts elsewhere, notably Hurricane Mitch. Then there’s 2010, and surprisingly, even 2020, both very active years. So, these years serve as strong analogs for the busy season ahead.”
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