ORLANDO, Fla. – As of 5 p.m. Sunday the National Hurricane Center has designated the tropical wave as Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 in the Atlantic.
Although this area does not appear to have a well-defined center, over the next few days it will continue to move into a more favorable environment for further development.
This disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm, gaining the name Ernesto before reaching the Leeward Islands early Tuesday morning. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Leeward Islands.
Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday before spreading into Puerto Rico Wednesday into Thursday. Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight or Monday for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane status by midweek as it moves west northwest over the western Atlantic. A further turn to the north is anticipated as a deep layer area of low pressure moves off the eastern U.S. coast influencing the pathway shift.
Model guidance has continued to keep this system offshore away from Central Florida and the eastern seaboard, but late in the upcoming week it’s possible swells from the system will cause rough surf and high rip current risks for our area beaches.